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Heavy rain, blustery winds throughout today

If for some reason you haven’t left your bed this morning or looked outside yet, well, first of all we’re jealous. But more importantly — it’s raining out there, pretty consistently. The culprit is a low pressure system sitting right near the Mid-Atlantic coast, one which we detailed a few days ago. Moderate to heavy rain, occurring as a result of mid level forcing and lift, will continue to push northward throughout the day today. The heaviest rain in New Jersey and New York City will occur during the late morning hours as the strongest support for precipitation pushes through.

A strong onshore flow, developing as a result of a high pressure to the north and the strengthening low pressure to our south, will continue to create blustery and gusty conditions as well as high surf. So the most raw conditions from this system will almost certainly occur near the area beaches. Still, moderate to heavy rain and wind can be expected throughout a vast majority of the area today — and temperatures will remain cool and damp.

The interest of many by tonight will turn to Yankee Stadium, where Derek Jeter will play his last home game. I am one of thousands upon thousands who purchased tickets to the game (Jeter is my childhood hero, although I’m sure everyone has their own story), and we’ll all obviously be watching very carefully. So here’s the breakdown:

Forecast models are in good agreement that the best forcing for heavy rain with frontogenesis will shift northward and weaken later this afternoon. Some secondary areas of moderate rain within the general area of precipitation should still develop, but these are expected to be tucked closer to the surface low near the coast of New Jersey.

This is good news, as it gives us higher confidence that heavy, blinding rain won’t be occurring at 7:00pm when the game is scheduled to start. Models also indicate an expanding dry slot in the mid levels which may help to put an end to heavier precipitation — this would match up will with the systems progression. However, low level moisture will continue to pool near the area as the system tracks nearby.

HRRR model forecast for this evening around 7pm.

HRRR model forecast for this evening around 7pm.

What this all means is that we’re looking at a high likelihood of drizzle/light rain and cool and damp conditions at Yankee Stadium tonight. But currently, our confidence is increasing that heavy/blinding rain (which would cancel the game) isn’t likely — and any heavy rain that is occurring is likely to shut off by 7-8pm.

What we do encourage is for you to stay tuned to our social media accounts today. We’ll be updating throughout the day to keep you informed of the latest information.