2014 – Page 50 – New York Metro Weather

Periods of light snow likely this weekend

February 7, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

Amidst an active pattern, featuring multiple disturbances aloft and a very fast jet stream, several low pressure systems are expected to pass near or through the area during the upcoming weekend. Despite the lack of the media/internet created 30″ snowstorm, there will still be a few chances for snow over the next few days as we have alluded to in our previous posts. A piece of the polar vortex spinning well to our north over Southeast Canada will keep the rotation of Pacific disturbances fairly fast, so we aren’t expecting the development of any slow moving or major systems. But as we saw this past Monday, even the quicker storms can sometimes surprise us.

The first system will pass offshore well to our south on Sunday, with the low pressure center exiting off the Carolina coast and then eastward. Impacts to our area are expected to be minimal, but some forecast models indicate the potential for an inverted trough (more about those here) with light snow reaching parts of Southeast New Jersey. Impacts, if any, will be minimal. Another disturbance on its heals by Monday is more likely to provide at least an area of steady light snow for most of us — with the isolated chance of a stronger coastal system developing.

NAM model forecasting the development of light to moderate snow throughout the area late Sunday into Monday.

Attention shifts to the weekend and next week for more snow chances

February 5, 2014/0 Comments/by Doug Simonian

Our snow and ice storm is moving out of the region, producing copious amounts of snow just north of the city — where up to a foot fell in Southern New York and parts of New England. 4″ of snow fell in New York City, before turning over to 1/4″ of freezing rain, and a widespread significant ice storm resulted in widespread power losses in interior New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Quite frankly, it is a mess outside. Concerns begin to elevate again, as temperatures begin to fall back into the 20s, leading any standing water on roadways to refreeze back into ice. Additionally, tree limbs may also collapse on area roadways, leading to more problems. We highly recommend taking serious caution when commuting this evening and tonight. Tomorrow morning’s commute may even be hazardous, as well.

Now that this storm is wrapping up, we can begin to shift our attention towards the weekend. A couple of days ago, many computer models began to show a potent nor’easter hitting the East Coast producing widespread significant snowfall amounts. And while many of the ingredients are still there for a major snowfall, the evolution of the pattern has changed a bit as none of the models are forecasting a major snowstorm for the weekend at this time. That being said, we still need to keep a close eye on this system. For more background information on the evolution of the pattern, why it is so active, and what the models were initially showing this weekend, check out our article from two days ago.

Let’s take a look at what has changed. Below, we will see the 500mb pattern on the European Model from two days ago, valid for Thursday evening, as well as today’s European model, valid for that same time period.

The European Model run at 500mb from two days ago, valid for Thursday evening. It showed more potential for a big storm this weekend. Image credit goes to the WSI Model Lab.

Today’s European Model valid for Thursday evening shows a less amplified pattern in Western Canada, which explains why it is not as threatening for this weekend. Image Credit goes to the WSI Model Lab.

Winter Storm Warnings in effect through Wednesday

February 4, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

The second winter storm in 48 hours time will impact the area beginning Tuesday Night and continuing into Wednesday. Despite occurring less than two days after a significant snowstorm which blanketed the area with 8-10″ of snow from Sunday into Monday, this system will feature an entirely different set of threats — and will also feature a completely different evolution. A low pressure system is forecast to drive from Tennessee Valley into the Ohio Valley and Western Pennsylvania, while a secondary surface low redevelops off the coast of New Jersey. The result will be heavy precipitation overspreading the area Tuesday Night, and mid level warm air advection rapidly surging northward.

At the surface, cold air looks to be stubborn — especially away from the coast. The result will be a storm featuring snow which will quickly transition to sleet, freezing rain and rain throughout the area. Coastal locations and areas farther south will be warmer initially and likely will changeover to plain rain after just light accumulations. But farther north and across interior New Jersey, Southeast NY and parts of CT — significant low level cold will be slower to scour out. And the result will be the potential for several inches of snow followed by icing, which could create a high impact storm system with travel hazards and power outages into Wednesday. The National Weather Service issued Winter Storm Warnings in advance of the system, which are in effect for Tuesday Night into Wednesday.

Snow (left) and Ice (right) forecasts from Tuesday Night into Wednesday from our meteorologists.

Incredibly active winter weather pattern continues this week

February 3, 2014/0 Comments/by Doug Simonian

There is an old saying in meteorology and folklore which says “Dry begets dry”. An adaptation of that saying could be true over the next 7 days in our area; as “Snow begets snow”. Monday’s snowstorm, as the story is written, brought 7-10″ to a vast majority of the forecast area. With periods of moderate to heavy snow beginning during the early morning and continuing into the afternoon, the storm was “high impact” by nature. And the 6+” of snowfall set a record for the day at Central Park which was previously set in 1996. Despite the significant snowfall in much of the area on Monday, there is no time for reminiscing — attention will turn to more events this week and into the weekend which could also prove to be of significant nature.

The first winter weather event on the horizon comes on Tuesday night and Wednesday, and the potential combination of snow, sleet, and freezing rain has already prompted the National Weather Service to issue a Winter Storm Watch. Yes, this means we are currently under a Winter Storm Warning for Monday’s storm, and a Winter Storm Watch for a future storm, at the same time. It has been decades (no, really) since the NYC area was under a congruent Winter Storm Warning and Winter Storm Watch for different events. This speaks volumes to the active nature of this weather pattern. The second storm we have to track is for the Sunday and Monday period, which some modeling data has already indicated the potential for a blockbuster. Remember, there is a major difference between potential and hype, and we highly suggest you read our article about it if you have not already.

Heavy wet snow falling in Rockville Centre at around 9:45am EST on Monday, February 3rd. This probably won't be the last time this week we have a wintry scene like this.

Heavy wet snow falling in Rockville Centre, NY at around 9:45am EST on Monday, February 3rd. This probably won’t be the last time this week we have a wintry scene like this.

Archive for year: 2014