Today's NAM Model valid for Monday afternoon shows widespread low to mid 90s.

The dog days of August are here

Good afternoon! If you haven’t noticed by now, it’s pretty hot outside, with temperatures generally in the low 90s as we speak. This hot airmass has settled in thanks to a large heat ridge stretching across most of the country, as well as an area of high pressure offshore, further helping to pump in southwesterly flow.

There is a weak shortwave and area of vorticity in our vicinity on the downstream side of the ridge. When this is combined with an already hot surface, a few showers and thunderstorms are possible as the afternoon progresses. However, with almost no wind shear whatsoever and some subsidence from the ridging and offshore high pressure, any shower or thunderstorm will be isolated. It still may be a good idea to keep an eye out on the radar, regardless. Clouds will be on the increase in the vicinity of these storms.

Generally with these large heat ridges stretching across most of the country, the mid and upper level winds are very slow. This causes a stagnation in the pattern, keeping this hot riding in our area for several days. It won’t be until a large trough comes down from Canada later this week that the ridging will finally get dislodged, albeit temporarily.

Here are our weather highlights for the next several days:

  • A warm, muggy night is in-store tonight, with low temperatures generally around 70 degrees.
  • Perhaps the hottest day of this heat stretch will be tomorrow, with highs in the low and perhaps mid 90s in some spots. This is because there will be a bit more of a westerly component to the wind. Skies will be mostly sunny. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible on Monday night into Tuesday morning as the airmass becomes more tropical.
  • The first portion of the aforementioned large trough will be diving down into the Midwest on Tuesday, which may be just enough to yield a few more clouds and an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. It will still be hot, but a few degrees cooler than on Monday.
  • As the trough digs more on Wednesday, it will actually increase the ridging out ahead of it, making Wednesday perhaps sunnier and hotter than Tuesday, with a smaller chance of rain. Temperatures around 90 degrees with high humidity will be common.
  • The trough itself will finally move into the area on Thursday, increasing the chances for showers and thunderstorms. With the ridging still somewhat holding on to the east, the trough may be over the area in a several-day period, leading to afternoon thunderstorms from Thursday through Saturday. They could be strong, but we are not expecting severe weather at this time. Warm and humid conditions will still prevail, but clouds may prevent widespread 90s.

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