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Warmer, unsettled weather to close the week

The roller-coaster ride continues this week, as temperatures again have fluctuated dramatically over the past several days. The cold weather from earlier this week has been replaced with warmer air today, and the trend will continue into Friday. Warm southwesterly winds will continue to advect in a moderating, moist airmass ahead of a major storm system over the Central United States.

With this warm, unfortunately, will come unsettled conditions as well. Although high temperatures will approach the upper 60’s to lower 70’s in many areas over the next few days, clouds and showers will become increasingly likely as well — essentially from Thursday afternoon onward.

The height of unsettled weather is likely to come on Friday, as the storm system to our west moves into Southeast Canada. An increasingly unstable atmosphere, juxtaposed with increasing lift for precipitation, will bring showers and thunderstorms into the area from the morning hours on Friday into the afternoon. These will continue until a cold front crosses the region Friday evening.

SPC severe weather outlook for Friday, showing a marginal risk in parts of NJ and the NYC  Metro.

SPC severe weather outlook for Friday, showing a marginal risk in parts of NJ and the NYC Metro.

Along with the cold frontal passage will come a locally enhanced chance for showers and thunderstorms. With strong dynamics aloft, some of these storms could produce stronger gusty winds. While this potential is expected to remain relatively isolated, the Storm Prediction Center has placed our area in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon. This potential obviously will wane after the front moves through.

The roller-coaster won’t stop there. Cold air will be waiting in the wings, as a strong frontal system approaches the area on Sunday. After its passage early Sunday morning, strong winds (possibly gusting up to 50 miles per hour) and snow squalls are expected — associated with a polar shortwave in the mid levels of the atmosphere. This cold weather is likely to last into the early part of next week.