Image courtesy of PSU Ewall

Unsettled Weather Continues for The Rest of This Week

A broad wave of low pressure, along a frontal boundary to the south, has caused rain to fall moderately at times overnight and early this morning. Steady rain is now tapering off to more showers , as this storm system consolidates farther offshore. Skies will continue to remain mostly cloudy this afternoon.  Some more widely scattered showers and areas of fog or drizzle are possible, with a couple more weak disturbances and the right-entrance region of upper-level jet streak coming behind this initial low pressure. Clouds and an onshore flow will keep temperatures from rising much today and dropping much tonight — staying in the upper 50’s.

The NAM showing light showers behind low pressure off shore with right-rear entrance region of upper-level jet and mid-level shortwaves(disturbances) passing through region

The NAM showing light showers behind low pressure off shore with right-rear entrance region of upper-level jet and mid-level shortwaves(disturbances) passing through region later this afternoon

Unsettled weather with more cool and damp conditions is expected to remain in control for the rest of this week with omega blocking pattern taking hold. An upper-level trough with various shortwaves rotating around it will dig into Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic regions tomorrow. This will lead to weak, broad or disorganized waves of low pressure developing near the coast — and they are expected to track northward during Wednesday and Thursday. This could cause more clouds and onshore winds to persist with cool temperatures. There is likely to be a chance for some showers each day. But there could be some peeks of sun or long-periods of dry weather as well.

Shortwave energy with this trough will phase into a deep, more organized cut-off low over the Lower Mid-Atlantic region by Thursday night. The cut-off low will slowly track to the northeast on Friday.  A more steadier, heavier rainfall is possible if low pressure at surface consolidates more and tracks close enough to the region. Otherwise at least more showers are likely. Model solutions vary on the handling of these synoptic features.  So more details on timing and rainfall amounts will difficult to pinpoint, until much closer to wave or disturbance affecting the region this week. A persistent onshore flow with the approach of the new moon could also lead some minor or moderate coastal flooding during high tides later this week.

The GFS showing omega block with cut-off lows over along the West and East Coasts

The GFS showing omega block with cut-off lows over along the West and East US coasts on Thursday night. Image credit: PSU ewall

Some improvement may be in store this weekend with model guidance showing an omega blocking ridge collapsing with a more active pacific jet. But some lower than normal confidence remains with current model solutions at this range. The cut-off low could still meander near the area, with some clouds and showers lingering into at least the early part of the weekend. Then the cut-off low weakens and merges with the next upper-level trough swinging over Great Lakes and Northeast late this weekend. A frontal system with this upper-level trough could also produce more scattered showers sometime later in the weekend. But if high pressure builds in between both systems, more sunshine with warmer temperatures are possible this weekend.

Stay tuned for a more updates here throughout the week, as we work hard to try pinpoint more details. For more forecast details, technical discussions, and long-range outlooks sign up for our premium membership today!

 

 

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