Monday Evening Roundup: Cool AM Lows…Showers Likely Late Tonight

This morning started off chilly in many areas just outside of NYC with temperatures getting into 40s and lower 50s in many suburbs. While no record lows were set, some places down into the middle to upper 30s, which is around 10 degrees or so below normal for this time of year.  These are some morning low temperatures at these select sites around the region:

Westhampton, NY: 35

Port Jervis, NY: 35

Montgomery, NY: 37

Morristown, NJ: 37

Danbury, CT: 35

Temperatures rose back into the upper 60s to lower 70s with more sunshine this afternoon. Now clouds are on the increase this evening, as a frontal system begins approaching the region. Some showers are likely over much of the region late tonight into tomorrow morning with the cold front passing through the region. Some heavy downpours and isolated thunderstorms are possible with abundant moisture and some elevated instability. Additionally, a potent upper-level jet streak will pass to our north, placing us in the right-entrance region, which will further serve to enhance precipitation. This could lead to some ponding of water on area roadways. However, showers and any thunderstorms will be moving quickly over the area, so heavy rainfall totals over 1.00″ and localized flash flooding are unlikely.

This afternoon's GFS valid for Tuesday morning shows showers and embedded heavy downpours. A strong jet streak passing by helps to enhance the lift in our atmosphere.

This afternoon’s GFS valid for Tuesday morning shows showers and embedded heavy downpours. A strong jet streak passing by helps to enhance the lift in our atmosphere.

Right now it looks like the early-morning commute will be wet, but the mid-morning should primarily be dry, except over far eastern areas. Skies should clear tomorrow afternoon as the cold front passes through the region. Sunshine breaking out later in the day  should help temperatures rise back into the lower 70s. Dry weather will continue into Tuesday night. Then more unsettled weather, with some rainfall, is possible with the cut-off low lingering over the region. But it won’t necessarily be complete washout later this week, though heavy rain is possible at times. Rainfall is needed as much of the region is in a moderate or severe drought.  More forecast and technical details were discussed in our weekly outlook article and main dashboard for clients and premium members this morning.

For more forecast details on the rains later in the week, including weekly and long-range outlooks and video discussion, sign up to become a Premium member tonight!

 

 

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