Good morning! More typical summer-time heat and humidity is in store for next few days. For today, weak high pressure and upper-level ridging will be over Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region,. This will result in mostly sunny skies for much of the day. Latest models show 850mb temperatures between around 15° C to 17° C with very light westerly winds later today. This will support high temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 over much of the local region today. A weak flow will allow for some sea-breezes to develop again this afternoon and keep temperatures from rising out lower to middle 80s right along the shores.
There isn’t much of a trigger for convection today. But a surface trough will develop again over the Interior. The NAM model forecasts instability to build with MLCAPE 500 -1000 joules. So few isolated showers and thunderstorms could develop this afternoon over Interior parts of NY, PA, New England and over Northwest NJ. The main threat from thunderstorms with a very weak shear and poor mid-level lapse rates, with be locally heavy rainfall, as any thunderstorms will likely be slow-moving. Therefore these showers or thunderstorms are not likely make it down to more coastal areas, before diminishing closer to sunset.
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