PM AG Update: After Moderation, Cool Risk Returns

The retrogression in the Pacific has long been advertised, and it will certainly help a good chunk of the US modify in week 2, and into a decent chunk of the week 3 period as well, as a large ridge builds across much of the US. Now that we have this idea figured out with a decent amount of confidence, it becomes a bit easier to roll forward with expectations in the extended period.

While there will be a lot of modification taking place, the orientation of the retrogression will allow a large piece of a trough to break off in Canada and slide eastward towards the Great Lakes and the Northeast. Thus, despite the overall progression towards modification, there will be a decent shot of cool air for much of the Eastern third of the US to begin week 2, and a potential for a lot of rain to be focused in the Northern Plains, the Great Lakes, and parts of the Northeast in the midst of this trough’s arrival.

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