Rain Exits Tonight, Active New Year’s Week Ahead
Good evening!
As expected, today has been yet another dreary and rainy Friday for much of the East Coast. In fact, this has been the third Friday in a row that has featured heavy rain and mild temperatures. Unfortunately, that streak looks to continue, but we will have more on that later.
As of 5 pm, most of the left-over heavy rain was located just off the New Jersey coast and gradually moving to the east/northeast. While most of the metro area will begin to see precipitation tapper off from west to east in the next few hours, portions of eastern Long Island will likely see periods of moderate to heavy rain until the early evening hours. Stout southwesterly flow has been over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast since early this morning, and temperatures have since been able to shoot up into the middle to upper 50’s across much of the area- with even some 60 degree readings showing up over portions of southern New Jersey. Needless to say, these highs are well-above normal for this time of year, with readings coming in anywhere from 18-24 degrees above-normal!
Mild temperatures and the chance for a light shower or two will last well into the overnight hours tonight as the cold front associated with this system lags well off to the west over the Ohio Valley. Lows tonight will be very mild, with temperatures staying in the middle to upper 40’s for much of the area. Temperatures across southern New Jersey could stay well into the 50’s into the early morning hours of Saturday.
In addition to the chance for some leftover showers this evening, low-level moisture will also contribute to some foggy conditions across the region before more windy conditions take over. Please use caution while traveling tonight, as some locations could see locally dense fog.
~Updated Weekly Planner~
Cold Front Finally Arrives Saturday, Another Storm Develops Late Sunday
Saturday will likely start off rather mild across much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast as a cold front to our west slowly limps towards our area. High temperatures will likely be reached during the early morning hours, with readings likely reaching the middle to upper 40’s–with 50’s possible closer to the coast. Leftover low-level moisture will likely contribute to partly cloudy skies during the days, but should gradually decrease as we head into the late afternoon and evening hours. The much-anticipated cold front will finally move through our area by 3-5 pm, which should feature increasing winds, sharply falling temperatures, and decreasing dewpoints. These gusty winds and decreasing temperatures will last into the evening and overnight hours, with lows getting back down towards seasonable levels. Expect temperatures to bottom out in the middle to upper 20’s, with lower 30’s in and around the city.
Thankfully, Sunday looks to be the “gem” of this forecast period as it will feature mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures in the middle 30’s to lower 40’s for the entire forecast area as an area of high pressure build in over the east. Mid-level flow will be increasing from the west, so we cannot rule out a few passing clouds during the day, but the overall forecast for Sunday looks quite pleasant. Unfortunately, our next storm system will be gathering out over the Southern Plains late in the day Sunday night, with showers and thunderstorms likely beginning to increase over the Arklatex region.
This evenings NAM model showing the progression of the weak cold front set to move through the area on Saturday
Dreary and Dismal New Year’s Eve Likely
At this time, it is unfortunately looking likely that the system that will develop over the South late Sunday and into Monday will impact the New York City area on New Year’s eve with the potential for yet another chance at heavy rain-a fitting end to one of the wettest years in record. Clouds will gradually increase during the afternoon hours on Monday as yet another strong push of southwesterly flow moves into the region. As the day progresses into the late afternoon and evening hours on Monday, the main surface low will begin to push through the Ohio Valley, with a large area of steady rain overspreading the region by 5-8 pm. Conditions will continue to gradually go downhill as a low-level jet transporting moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will be overhead by this time as well. This will set the stage for heavy rain to potentially move through the NYC area just in time for the New Year’s celebration in Times Square as temperatures begin to rise into the middle to upper 40’s. The rain should gradually begin to tapper off from west to east during the very early morning hours of Tuesday, with mild temperatures holding on throughout the night.
As if things couldn’t get any more bleak, this afternoon’s models have been keying in on yet another disturbance making its way towards our area late next week just in time for (you guessed it!) Friday. If this system were to happen the way the models show, this would be the fourth Friday in a row which featured at least moderate to heavy rain!
Details for this potential system are very hazy at this point in time, but we will continue to monitor it over the coming days!
This afternoons ECMWF model showing yet another heavy rain event for New Year’s eve
We hope everyone has an excellent weekend and we will have an update on the upcoming system on Monday!
Steve Copertino
