Good evening! It has become apparent now that a large and powerful storm system is on the way for late Wednesday night and Thursday, but this forecast is more complicated than usual. With the storm growing powerful so quickly, at a far south latitude and with a plethora of convection, we will be in uncharted territory as far as forecasting goes – in other words, common meteorology assumptions will need to be more closely analyzed and thought through.
Our latest video analyzes all of the intricacies regarding this storm, including the multiple pieces of energy involved, how a more powerful southern stream wave can change the entire forecast, how a further west track does not necessarily mean heavier snow for the area, yet a few small westward ticks could mean parts of the area receives a major blizzard. The trends in the modeling regarding the strength and interaction of these pieces of energy is also quite fascinating to watch unfold, and it’s why the GFS model made a rapid shift towards a snowier solution.
Any solution from a minor graze to a significant to major snowstorm is still very much on the table, and while a moderate “blend” may be the way to go with the forecast, it is very important to communicate all of the possibilities and how because of these complex intricacies, it’s harder to communicate them than usual.