Beautiful weekend shaping up, heat wave next week?

Good evening and happy Friday!

Our sensible weather has once again calmed down after a series of strong thunderstorms impacted the area last night. Thankfully, this calm weather is likely to last right through the weekend and into the beginning of next week! While conditions will remain dry, we’ll also be gradually turning up the heat through next week!

As expected, last evening/night was rather active just to the south and west of the immediate NYC area! Numerous showers and thunderstorms slowly moved over SEPA and SNJ, triggering over a dozen flash-flood warnings. A few severe thunderstorms were also present, with a confirmed tornado in Burlington County!

Thankfully, today has been a much more pleasant and calm day across the area. The front that spawned last night’s activity quickly moved offshore this morning, clearing out any residual showers. Mostly clear skies and warm mid-level temperatures allowed the heat to build rather early today. Highs across the entire metro area peaked in the middle to upper 80’s–with lower 90’s over NENJ and in Manhattan. Mostly dry and warm conditions remain in place over much of the Northeast this evening. A cold front will gradually work it’s way into the area over the next few hours, allowing temps to fall a bit. Lows will likely dip back into the middle 60’s areawide with mostly clear skies throughout the night.

~Snapshot of this evening’s conditions across the area~

Near-perfect conditions to dominate the weekend!

Tomorrow (Saturday) will likely start off quite clear and warm across the entire NYC area. Nothwesterly flow aloft will usher in some dry air from Canada, keeping skies mostly sunny through the afternoon. Highs will quickly rise into the middle to upper 80’s, with 90’s possible over northeastern New Jersey. While dewpoints will be on the rise tomorrow afternoon, overall humidity levels will remain quite manageable. Rather unremarkable conditions will continue into the evening/overnight hours with only some passing clouds. Lows tomorrow night will fall back to seasonable levels, with upper 60’s to lower 70’s likely.

Much of the same is expected for our day on Sunday. Sunny skies, light winds, and warm temps will make for an all-around excellent day for outdoor activities. Temperatures will likely get to just about the same territory as Saturday, with middle to upper 80’s likely. Once again, lower 90’s are certainly possible over northeastern New Jersey and the immediate NYC area. Clear skies are expected into the evening hours of Sunday as another front moves in. Thankfully, this frontal passage will be a dry one. Temperatures will likely fall a few degrees just in time for dusk. Lows will be slightly cooler, with readings in the middle 60’s.

NWS forecasted highs showing very warm conditions holding through the weekend

Heat and humidity build next week, Barry to pay a visit to the Northeast?

Continued calm and dry conditions are likely to remain in place for the start of next week. Mid-level ridging will begin to build over the Northeast on Monday, likely bumping much of the area into the lower 90’s. A substantial chunk of the metro will likely be at or above 90 degrees well into the week. At this time, it appears likely that more substantial heat and humidity will move into the East later in the week. We could easily see temps rise into the middle 90’s, with heat indices in the triple digits by Thursday!

Additionally, we’ll have to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Barry after it makes landfall in Lousiana. There is the potential for at least some showers/thunderstorms to move into the Northeast by the end of the week. At the very least, humidity levels will rise, adding to the overall misery of next weeks heat!

GFS Ensemble showing above-average temperatures lasting through the middle of next week!

Thanks for reading and have a great weekend!

-Steve Copertino