The Weekender: Unsettled weather likely this weekend

This is a crazy time of year for meteorologists. After a few months of relatively calm and simple weather, things take a complicated turn in Autumn. Storms get stronger, the jet stream gets wilder, and hours get longer. These few weeks in particular are some of the craziest, as we finalize our Winter Forecast and start to look ahead to the next few months.

Don’t get me wrong, i’m grateful for the opportunity to do this. Much of my career so far has been the realization of dreams I have had since I was a kid. But the coffees are flowing and the sleep is fleeting. The office is unsettled this week as we continue to comb through data and gain a grasp on what this Winter will truly hold.

Think of it this way: Seasonal forecasts are a multi-faceted process. We factor in and weight so many different things: ENSO conditions, stratospheric trends, sea surface temperatures, analog years. Putting together the pieces to that puzzle (hopefully in a correct fashion) is a great challenge which we are still in the process of tackling.

For fellow meteorologists and forecasters, it’ll be important to prioritize and take a bit of a break over the next few weeks. It’s crunch time, but there is a long Winter ahead. Take care of yourselves and make sure not to drive yourself into the ground before the first snowflake even falls. For everyone else, we don’t expect you to feel bad (everyone is busy, we get it) but go easy on us ;).

More on the actual weather, which also looks unsettled this weekend

Multiple disturbances are expected to slide through the Northeast states this weekend. The most significant one will arrive from late Saturday into Sunday, and it’s expected to bring significant moisture with it.

In fact, most forecast model guidance suggests that precipitable water values could approach 3 SD above normal. Precipitable water is a measure of the atmospheric moisture content, so to see values at 3 standard deviations is significant.

With a front nearing the area and plentiful moisture available, model guidance is suggesting that moderate to heavy rainfall could be quite common on Sunday. Showers will persist throughout the morning, with the heaviest rainfall potential from the late morning into the early afternoon.

After the system passes on Sunday, we anticipate improving weather early next week. Another significant storm system is possible as we get close to Halloween, during the middle of next week. This storm is more likely to usher in cold air, with Canadian air driving southward behind it.

It looks likely that the tail end of next week, and next weekend, could feature some very cold air. It remains to be seen how organized the midweek storm gets, but it could be both a rain and wind producer.

That’s all for us today. Stick around for updates throughout the weekend – and enjoy your Friday evening!

The Weekender is an adaptation of our weekend forecasts, featuring commentary on our forecasting process. You’ll find forecast information, plus discussions on other topics including the life of our meteorologists.