Winter Weather Advisory issued for NYC as another snowstorm approaches

The National Weather Service issued a Weather Advisory for the NYC Metro Area from Thursday morning through Friday morning, with the expectation of 4-8″ of snow and the possibility of travel delays and difficulties. A Winter Weather Advisory means that winter weather impacts are likely during the next 24-36 hours. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect to the west and southwest of NYC, in much of New Jersey and Eastern Pennsylvania.

The winter storm is expected to bring periods of snow to the area starting Thursday morning, with the heaviest snow occurring between the late morning and early afternoon hours across Northern NJ and the NYC Metro. Impacts, including some wintry mix and light snow, could linger well into Friday morning.

For more information on the difference between a Winter Storm Watch, Winter Weather Advisory, and Winter Storm Warning, click here.

For a breakdown of the synoptic evolution and meteorology behind the storm threat, see our briefing article from yesterday. Below, we dive into the latest anticipated timing and impacts and provide our final snowfall forecast.

Thursday 

Snow will develop from southwest to northeast through the Mid Atlantic states and towards Pennsylvania, New Jersey and the NYC Metro during the early to mid morning hours. Steady snowfall is likely to begin in Northern New Jersey and NYC by 10:00am. Accumulations should occur quickly, although it may take some time on warmer surfaces (pavement temperatures were measured in the 50’s earlier today).

Snowfall intensity will pick up during the late morning and early afternoon across the entire NYC Metro and surrounding areas. Bands of moderate to heavy snow, driven by favorable atmospheric jet dynamics, will lead to reduced visibility during this time. Travel difficulties are likely.

Snow intensity will begin to taper off after 3:00pm across the NYC Metro and surrounding areas, as the best dynamics lift to our north and east. Light to moderate snow will continue. Eventually, during the mid afternoon hours, warmer layers in the mid levels of the atmosphere (3000 to 5000 feet above our heads) could begin to move toward the area. These could serve to melt snowflakes on their way down to the surface, resulting in periods of sleet or freezing drizzle.

Thursday Night and Friday 

Periods of wintry mix, including some snow, sleet and freezing drizzle are expected to continue on Thursday evening. Although the heavy snow may have ended, this precipitation will result in icy and slippery conditions continuing through the PM Commute and well into the evening hours.

As a low pressure develops off the coast, redevelopment of moderate precipitation rates is anticipated through early Friday morning. Additional snow and sleet accumulations are expected areawide on Friday morning, with precipitation gradually tapering off through Friday afternoon across the area.

Final thoughts and snowfall forecast

Confidence has increased in the overall evolution of the storm system across the entire region, and the expectation is that a moderate impact winter storm will occur from Thursday into Friday. Our current forecast continues to call for 3-6″ in the immediate NYC Metro regions.

Some snowfall totals in excess of 6″ (mostly in 6-8″ range) are possible west and southwest of the metro, in parts of Western NJ as well as Southeast PA. These areas could see periods of prolonged heavy snowfall.

As a reminder, the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the NYC Metro. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect further west, in Eastern PA and NJ. This means that winter weather is very likely to cause widespread travel disruptions within the next 24-36 hours. Prepare for delays and travel difficulties.

We’ll have further updates on the storm system as it begins to evolve this evening and through Thursday morning as well.