The winter season, thus far has been characterized mainly by transition. No real consistency has developed in the weather pattern, both throughout the Pacific Ocean and the United States. Much of this can be attributed to tropical forcing and the state of the Pacific Ocean itself, which has remained largely in flux over the past several months. Every time it appears a pattern will settle in, some sort of retrograde or reversal occurs — before another train of disturbance arrives from the Western Pacific and changes things yet again.
Yet, here we are, more than halfway through the winter, at what seems to be a breaking point of sorts. The atmosphere, from the troposphere to the stratosphere, is about to undergo some significant changes, most of which will have a large impact on the weather we experience here across the lower 48. Much of this begins in the Pacific Ocean (Again) where the pattern is going to change once again — and ends in the stratosphere, where the large polar vortex is going to be significantly disrupted.
The sensible weather results throughout the lower 48 currently remain uncertain. But there are some clues to be found in the medium and long range forecast models. There are also clues to be found away from model guidance — not everything comes directly from them, after all. We can look to past events as well as basic synoptic meteorology to begin to understand how the pattern will evolve through February and beyond.
We break down what’s going on in our latest video:
