John Homenuk

Analysis: Severe weather possible Tuesday

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An unusually organized area of low pressure, and an associated mid level disturbance, is expected to track through the Northeast states on Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. Riding on the periphery of a large mid and upper level ridge, this disturbance will gain extra energy along a thermal and height gradient which exists from the Great Lakes into the Northeast states. The low pressure center, at the surface, is expected to track from the Great Lakes into Central and Northern New England.

The track of the low pressure center will, at the surface, push a warm front northward through the Mid Atlantic states from late Monday Night into Tuesday morning. This warm front is likely to push through New Jersey to a position near Northeast New Jersey, New York City, and Long Island by daybreak on Tuesday.

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John Homenuk

Weekly Outlook: Heat continues, storms Tuesday

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While the ridiculous, oppressive heat of this weekend is in the past, above normal temperatures and heat will continue during the upcoming week. Heat Index values will again approach the middle to upper 90’s throughout the area on Monday and Tuesday afternoon. A low pressure system moving north of the area is likely to create some more unsettled weather on Tuesday, with the potential for strong and severe thunderstorms in parts of the area.

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Miguel Pierre

Weekend Overview: Excessive Heat & Scattered T-Storms for Saturday and Sunday

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Oppressive heat and humidity will continue through Sunday with a strong upper-level ridge over region.  Temperatures are already approaching the upper 80s or lower 90s late this morning. High temperatures will be middle to upper 90s both Saturday and Sunday, over much of the region. Heat index values will be between 105F to 110F this afternoon. Therefore the National Weather Service now has excessive heat warnings for most of the region through Sunday. Take precautions to stay well-hydrated, while outdoors this weekend.

Some scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening hours today and Sunday. A lack of deep layer shear and large scale forcing will likely inhibit more organized or widespread severe weather threats in the region. But with extreme levels of instability and moisture in the atmosphere, a few thunderstorms could become strong or severe with gusty winds, torrential downpours and frequent cloud to ground lightning. Some other highlights.

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John Homenuk

Oppressive combination of heat and humidity this weekend

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We have all experienced high temperatures before. In fact, most of us sat underneath a large ridge of high pressure earlier this summer which brought us temperatures in the upper 90’s. This weekend, however, temperatures will again surge into the upper 90’s — and combine with dew points in the middle to upper 70’s to bring Heat Index values near 110 F for periods of time each afternoon. This air, not surprisingly, will feel overly oppressive.

The culprit? The positioning of the aforementioned ridge in the mid levels of the atmosphere. Earlier in July, our area experienced a prolonged period of heat. But the ridge axis was centered in the Plains States. A clockwise flow around that ridge axis brought the heat into our area from the Northwest, meaning dew points were lower and the heat was of the “drier” variety. This time, the ridge is centered off the Southeast US Coast, with the clockwise flow around the high pressure bringing the heat into our area from the southwest.

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