Short Term Forecast – Page 23 – New York Metro Weather

Mesoscale Update: Severe storms, heavy rain likely today

June 19, 2017/by John Homenuk

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A warm and humid airmass has settled into the region this morning, ahead of a large mid level atmospheric trough digging through Southeast Canada and into parts of the Northeast States. With a surface low well to the northwest of the area, a cold frontal boundary will shift eastwards through Pennsylvania and New York later today, providing lift and forcing for widespread thunderstorms to develop.

These thunderstorms are likely to be fueled by a very warm and humid airmass which is already in place this morning. A deep southwesterly flow has become established throughout the region, leading to dew points in the upper 60’s and lower 70’s throughout the Northeast states. Temperatures this afternoon will rise into the 80’s, further enhancing the instability in the atmosphere.

Public Analysis: Seasonable Temperatures Return, Turning Unsettled Once Again

June 14, 2017/by Steven Copertino

Good Evening!

Though high temperatures this afternoon were not quite as oppressive and did not reach the 90 degree mark to continue to the heat wave, it was still a few degrees above normal across the majority of the region which helped to keep that summer feel around for another day. The theme of much-above normal temperatures is likely to be over for at least the medium range as Thursday and Friday will feature an appreciable drop in high temperatures-with some locations possibly struggling to get out of the upper 60’s on Friday! This weekend looks to have some rebounding of temperatures on Saturday and Sunday, but these will be highly dependent on the degree of unsettled weather that each day will likely feature. Finally, the start to the workweek on Monday be a wet, and possibly stormy one as a frontal system works through the area during the day.

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This Evening Into Thursday

Some scattered showers moved through the immediate New York Metro area early this morning, producing locally moderate to heavy patches of rain. As storms last night died off in Northwestern New Jersey, they left a pool of residual moisture and instability that waited until the sun rose for showers to once again take off.

These showers gradually progressed to the south and west, leaving generally sunny skies over the entire region. Clearing skies and winds from the east due to an area of high pressure over New England led to a warm, but not overly warm day today. Highs generally ranged in the low to mid 80’s, with coastal locations seeing highs a few degrees lower. Some patches of ragged cumulus clouds attempted to pop up during the late afternoon hours, but these were not long for this world as the stable air associated with the maritime airmass quickly knocked these back down before they could develop further. Mostly clear skies, light winds, and decreasing dewpoints should last through sunset and into the evening hours tonight, allowing temperatures to drop down into the upper 50’s to lower 60’s for lows tonight.

This afternoons latest available high resolution true-color visible satellite imagery, regional radar mosaic, and surface temperatures, showing a rather tranquil and warm late-afternoon (GOES-16 imagery Preliminary and Non-Operational)

As we start the day tomorrow, conditions should be mostly sunny with more concentrated clouds and showers possible over far northwestern New Jersey and Northern Pennsylvania. One thing that will be almost immediately noticeable during the late morning and early afternoon hours tomorrow, will the much lower levels of humidity. The easterly winds being ushered in by an area of high pressure over New England will provide yet another push of stable/maritime air-which should not only limit tomorrows temperatures, but also provide a chance of increasing clouds throughout the day tomorrow as the cool maritime air near the surface runs into increased levels of moisture in the middle layers of the atmosphere. With the maritime airmass in control and the threat of increased cloudiness, high temperatures tomorrow will likely be a good deal lower than they were over the past few day. Highs should range in the middle to upper 70’s-with some locations that see prolonged sun possibly getting into the 80 degree territory.

Shower will likely be confined to the far northwestern locations of New Jersey and possibly portions of southern New York, as they will be under less influence from the maritime airamss. Clouds will continue to increase through the evening hours, becoming overcast by late evening. As the area of high pressure over New England begins to retreat east, a frontal boundary over the Delmarva will shift low level winds from the east/east-southeast and usher in some more robust low level moisture. Showers may begin to form along the coast during the evening hours, but these will likely be scattered in nature.

This afternoons GFS model showing the eastward progression of the high pressure system leading to a frontal boundary over the Delmarva peninsula increasing low level easterly/southeasterly winds. At the very least, increased clouds are expected Thursday evening (Courtesy Tomer Burg UAlbany)

Friday Into Saturday

Friday looks to start off rather unsettled and cloudy for most of the area as low level moisture from the south and east continues to increase through the morning hours. As moisture continues to increase, an area of energy associated with a large, but slow-moving upper level low over Canada will begin to move towards the area during the afternoon hours. Though there will be ample moisture in place, and a “trigger” in place to set off any potential showers and thunderstorms, the onshore flow from the Atlantic may act to push the best areas of lift inland over portions of Northwestern New Jersey-possibly even into New York state. The model diverge significantly on where the best moisture convergence/showers will be during the day on Friday, but at this time it appears likely that the best threat for steadier rains will be located just inland over portions of Northeast Pennsylvania, Northwestern New Jersey, and Southern New York. This will likely have to be looked at again tomorrow, as though there is a frontal boundary in place, we have seen the model guidance severely underestimate just how much a maritime airmass can advance, which in turn will determine the location of the best threat of rain.

Any showers that do develop during the day on Friday should move east/northeast during the late afternoon and into the evening hours, gradually diminishing as time progresses. Highs on Friday will be highly dependent on how much cloud cover takes hold, and whether or not sustained precipitation develops, but highs should range in the low to middle 70’s, with some locations not being able to make it out of the 60’s!

Saturday will likely be another unsettled day, as the frontal boundary that was located to our south on Friday, lifts up and over the region as a warm front during the day. This will lead to increase in temperatures, but with ample moisture and weak lift, some showers in the morning and possibly even a thunderstorm will be quite possible during the afternoon hours. Highs will likely make a slight rebound back into the upper 70’s to lower 80’s across much of the region.

This afternoons European model showing a large upper level trough moving in from the Pacific Northwest , strengthening over the Great Lakes region and providing multiple chances of rain on both Sunday and Monday

Fathers Day and Beyond

During the day on Sunday, a large upper level trough our to west will be heading east/northeast in the Great Lakes region while strengthening. This strengthening area of low pressure will spawn a large cold front that will likely be located far to our west during Sunday. Ahead of this front should exist some more instability over the region, but with the main trigger-the cold front located far to our west, it may be rather hard to get actual showers and thunderstorms to pop during the day. Assuming the front does take its time in getting to the region, skies should generally be sunny during the day, which should allow for highs to reach into the low to middle 80’s.

As the front and the best forcing begins to make its way into the region during the day on Monday, instability and moisture should be more than sufficient for shower and thunderstorm development across the area, with some storms possibly being strong to severe in nature. The overall level of severity will rely strongly on the timing of this front, as strong surface heating and destabilization would lead to stronger storms. At this time, it appears that the main threat with any showers and thunderstorms will be gusty winds and heavy rainfall, but this threat will have to be monitored over the next few days.

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Have a great evening!

Steve Copertino

Public Analysis: Oppressive Early Week Heat Wave, Relief Coming?

June 12, 2017/by Steven Copertino

Good Evening!

As promised, yesterday and today have been the exact opposite of last week, with highs well into the 90’s for most locations and rather dry conditions. This heat looks to continue for another day or so, but we may have to deal with some strong thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon across portions of the area. Afterwards, a cold front looks to move through and bring in a much cooler Canadian/maritime airmass towards Wed/Thursday. In the longer range there are some indication that we may once again return to warmer weather, with highs at least in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s by next week, but the computer model guidance this afternoon is diverging on whether or not this next bout of heat will be here to stay, or will be a one or two day event.

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This Evening

The large ridge of high pressure that was forecast to move over the eastern two thirds of the nation has done just that over the past two days, and it has led to quite the temperature surge over our area. With winds out of the southwest this afternoon and abundant sunshine, we saw highs soar into the low to middle 90’s, with some locations getting all the way up to the upper 90’s. Combined with some modest low level moisture, today definitely had a muggy feel to it, making it rather hard to spend prolonged periods of time outside. In fact the NWS in Upton has issued a Heat Advisory, with the new criteria being “A Heat Advisory is issued when the combination of heat and humidity is expected to make it feel like it is at least 95 degrees for two consecutive days…or 100 degrees for any length of time.”

This evening should continue to be rather hot, with more breezy conditions developing later in the day, in addition to some increase in clouds, but really not enough to make all that much of an impact on the temperatures. As stated, with skies being quite clear, light winds after dark, and an area of high pressure located to our south, conditions should be favorable for some radiational cooling to take place. This will allow lows to drop around 20-25 degrees, into the upper 60’s and lower 70’s for most of the area, with coastal locations getting a few degrees lower.

This afternoons latest super high resolution satellite imagery from the GOES-16 Satellite, regional radar mosaic, and surface temperatures showing a rather hot, but start to the work week

Tomorrow Into Tomorrow Evening

Tomorrow will likely be just as warm, or possibly even a degree or two warmer in some locations as very warm temperatures aloft and southerly/southwesterly winds continue to feed into the area. Tomorrow morning will likely start off quite clear across the area, so temperatures should rise very rapidly as the sun angle increases throughout the early morning and into the afternoon hours. As the afternoon continues on, a cold front will be moving southward across the area and moving into a rather unstable airmass juxtaposed over the region. This cold front will act as a “trigger” and should begin to ignite at least scattered thunderstorms over portions of New York, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut.

While there does appear to be adequate instability for some strong to possibly severe thunderstorms, weak wind shear will prevent any widespread severe thunderstorms from developing, at least south of the New York City area. Additionally, the weaker shear will promote very slow storm motions, so the main hazards with any storms tomorrow appear to be gusty winds, frequent lightning, very heavy rainfall, and possibly some isolated large hail in the strongest of storms.

Otherwise, tomorrow looks to be on track for widespread 90 degree readings over much of the area. Heat indices look to also look to be in the middle to upper 90’s for locations removed from the coasts, so make sure to have plenty of water and take breaks if you are spending prolonged periods of time outside tomorrow! As we head into the evening hours, shower and thunderstorm activity should gradually progress east/southeast and weaken over time as the cold front begins to overtake the area. This will provide cooler temps tomorrow evening and increasing winds from the west/northwest.

This afternoons Rapid Precision Model showing strong to possibly severe thunderstorms developing tomorrow afternoon due to moderate instability and weak wind shear (Courtesy of WSI)

Wednesday and Beyond

As the cold front begins to push offshore early Wednesday morning, anticyclonic flow will become established over portions of New England that should begin to send winds in from the east over our area. These easterly winds in conjunction with a more moderate Canadian airmass will make for a much more bearable day on Wednesday, with highs likely reaching into the low to mid 80, with broken clouds with some sun peaking through at times.

Thursday should be even cooler than Wednesday as the anticyclone/high pressure area off of Cape Cod really digs in during the day. This will enhance easterly winds over the area, which likely be running into more moist low level air that should promote increased cloudiness and even some patchy shower development during the late morning and into the afternoon hours.

Friday looks to feature the only real threat of rain this week as a weak upper level disturbance moves to the north of the area, and surface trough to our south may try to trigger some showers over the area, with seasonable temperatures expected during the day. As of right now, the heavy rainfall threat is low, though we will continue to provide updates during the week!

This afternoons European Ensembles Model blend showing the potential for warmer temperatures to once again return, though they may be rather brief this time around

Have a great evening!

Steve Copertino

Public Analysis: Dreary Pattern Finally Breaks, Heat Wave Next Week?

June 7, 2017/by Steven Copertino

Good Evening!

Today was a rather mild and mostly cloudy day across the area, but even this was a pretty sizable improvement compared to what the region saw yesterday when driving rains, cloudy skies, and well-below temperatures dominated the day. The pattern of a weak to moderately negative North Atlantic Oscillation that has been producing dreary conditions and below normal temperatures for the past few weeks will finally begin to break down in quite a big way. Over the next few days, a large upper level trough off of the west coast will replace the large-scale ridge that has almost been a semi-permanent feature this Spring, and as this trough begins to dig in and strengthen, there will likely be some rather significant ramifications for our weather this weekend and into next week.

While all of the models and the overall pattern shaping up in the atmosphere screams that it will indeed get quite warm over the next week, the ceiling for next weeks high temperatures could be quite high-and we may even be talking about a heatwave for portions of the Northeast when all is said and done!

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This Evening Into Thursday

As mentioned above, today was still pretty mild and mostly cloudy by normal standards, but the pattern we have been locked in for the past four weeks or so now has been anything but normal. It may be hard to believe, but temperatures were actually a good 5-15 degrees above what they were yesterday at this time. Some cloudy conditions were observed over much of the area this afternoon as the pesky, lingering upper-level system that brought the heavy rain to the Northeast yesterday still meandered just to the south of the area. Even though there was sufficient energy still in the atmosphere, northerly winds ushered in dry air from Canada pretty much killed any chance of showers this afternoon, and it should remain this way throughout the rest of the day as winds from the north/north east continue. With breaks of sun and more dry air taking over the region, most locations across the entire area saw temperatures get into the upper 60’s and lowers 70’s, with some slightly cooler conditions for those along the coast and under more dense cloud cover.

As we head into the evening hours tonight, increasing dry air from the northeast/east and a weak area of high pressure will take over, which should allow for any lingering clouds to continue to dissipate at a rather steady pace. This will result in mainly clear conditions this evening, and when coupled with the dry air and light winds, radiational cooling will once again take shape this evening, allowing for any heat absorbed at the surface levels this afternoon to be quickly radiated back out into the atmosphere. This will ensure that temperatures once again drop down into the lower to middle 50’s across most of the region, with 40’s possible for some of the more rural sections of New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey.

This evenings latest surface observations, visible satellite imagery, and regional radar mosaic, showing rather tranquil and cool conditions over the region (Courtesy of College of DuPage)

Tomorrow looks to be a rather close call for the area as only a few days ago, the computer models were showing that yet another system with the potential for heavy rain would impact the region. However, as of this afternoon the computer model guidance has backed off this idea significantly and now shows that any potential rain will mainly be located to the east of New York City and should not be all that impactful. This system is just another byproduct of the lingering upper level system over our area that will once again strengthen and in the process, drag energy along the base of the trough from the south.

This energy will then race off the east coast which should result in the development of an area of low pressure near North Carolina during the day tomorrow that will quickly race to the north and east, drawing close to the 40/70 benchmark by the evening hours. The good news about this storm system missing us to the east is that as all of the lift and rainfall heads off near the low pressure system, dry/sinking air will be present over western areas that will promote clear/clearing skies throughout the day.

Overall, tomorrow looks to start off rather clear, becoming cloudier with time from west to east. Additionally, any shower potential will be highest along far eastern portions of Long Island and Connecticut by the late evening hours. High should range in the lower to middle 70’s across the entire region, with the exception of eastern locations under the influence of clouds and potential showers.

This evenings latest Rapid Precision Model showing the coastal low exiting well to the east of the area, with only the eastern fringes of Long Island and Connecticut seeing any impacts (Courtesy of WSI)

Friday and Saturday

Any lingering showers and associated cloudiness with the area of low pressure moving to the east of our area will likely end early Friday morning, which should give way to clearing skies and light northwesterly winds by early afternoon. With clear skies early on and light winds, temperatures should be able to quickly rebound into the middle 70’s across much of the area, but we may see some cumulus clouds begin to develop as the afternoon marches on due to rather cool upper level temperatures that will provide rapid condensation as the warm air near the surface begins to lift in elevation (steep low level lapse rates). With some weak instability likely present during the day, we may actually see showers and possibly some thunderstorms develop to the west of the immediate NYC area and begin to travel east. While these showers and thunderstorms do not look like they will be widespread and or severe in nature, some storms may produce heavy downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.

After this brief period of unstable weather, Saturday looks to be near-perfect with drier air feeding into the area, mostly sunny conditions and light winds will allow highs to climb into the low to mid 80’s on Saturday, with some slightly cooler temperatures to the east and along coastal locations.

Sunday and Beyond

Well the heat certainly looks to begin to build during the later half of the weekend and this is the news that many people have been anxiously awaiting for weeks now. Finally, it does appear that starting on Sunday a large ridge of high pressure will begin to build over the eastern third of the nation and will work to usher in much warmer mid and low level temperatures from the south/southwest. Highs on Sunday may range anywhere from the middle 80’s to lower 90’s, but this may only be the beginning.

As the ridge continues to flex its muscles again on Monday, more favorable mid level temperatures could allow temperatures to increase in magnitude once again, with highs possibly approaching the mid 90’s! Some uncertainty begins to arise starting Tuesday, as some models have a weak disturbance cooling things down, and another group of models have Tuesday once again reaching into the 90’s-which would make for a heat wave.

On Sunday/Monday/(possibly) Tuesday, we may see heat indices well into the 90’s and possibly even approach the century mark in a few select spots, so make sure to stay tuned for further updates from our forecasters as well as any potential heat advisories/warnings from the National Weather Service!

Have a great evening!

Steve Copertino

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