John Homenuk

PM Update: Wonderful Wednesday on the way

/0 Comments/by

A pleasant Tuesday, which featured lower dew points and comfortable temperatures in the mid 70’s — as well as a light northwest breeze and plenty of sun — will give way to a gorgeous evening and overnight period. Wednesday will be a hint warmer, with calm winds that will quietly shift from northwest to southwest. You’ll be hard pressed to find a more comfortable two day stretch in the first week of June!

Tonight: Clear, with low temperatures in the mid 50’s. A bit cooler near the shore and away from the city. Light north winds between 5 and 10 miles per hour, so crack a window and give the air conditioning a break tonight.

Wednesday: It doesn’t get much better than this. Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 70’s in the city, a hair cooler near the beaches and inland. North winds will flip to south-southwest by afternoon. Just a few clouds after noon.

Tropical moisture may mean a wet weekend: Forecast models have been persistent in showing the potential for widespread clouds, showers and a period of moderate to heavy rain this weekend. A tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico may eventually weaken and head up the East Coast while being scooped up by a progressive trough. The result would be a weak low pressure system tracking near the East Coast. Unsettled weather looks likely from late Thursday into Saturday, but the amount of rain remains in question.

NAM model showing precipitatable water values approaching 2.0 this weekend as tropical moisture surges up the East Coast.

NAM model showing precipitatable water values approaching 2.0 this weekend as tropical moisture surges up the East Coast.

El Reno tornado becomes widest ever recorded: Our article from earlier today detailed the El Reno, Oklahoma tornado which today was upgraded to an EF-5 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale. The tornado featured winds of 296 miles per hour (as measured by mobile doppler radar) and was 2.6 miles wide — a new record.

Be sure to follow our social media accounts on both Facebook and Twitter for up to the minute information and interaction.

 

Cooler, pleasant weather behind cold front

/0 Comments/by

The warm and humid airmass from this past weekend is a distant memory this afternoon, as cooler air with lower dew points has settled into the area. A refreshing northwest breeze will continue for the remainder of the day with high temperatures around average in the mid 70’s. The trend is expected to continue through the middle of the week, with more sun and slightly warmer temperatures on Wednesday — but not hot or humid at all.

Not all of the news is good, however. The forecast takes a bit of an unsettled turn by late Thursday and Friday and may become quite ugly by the weekend as a tropical moisture feed extends up the East Coast of the United States. Forecast models are showing a trough sinking through the Ohio Valley and Northeast by the weekend, with showers becoming likely with periods of heavy rain also a possibility if a weak surface low pressure system can form offshore.

We’ll keep a close eye on it as the week goes on, but for now enjoy the beautiful weather! Remember to check our social media accounts for frequent updates.

PM Update: Scattered storms, unsettled Monday

/0 Comments/by

After a weekend of heat (temperatures over 90 degrees since last Thursday in many locations), scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed this evening throughout the area. The main organized severe weather threat remained to our north, over New England, where better shear allowed for more widespread organized severe thunderstorms. Despite plenty of sun and instability in our area, storms have had trouble developing and becoming organized. Forecast models, however, are insistent that storms — and areas of steady rain — will develop from Sunday evening through Monday as the front slows near the area.

The unsettled weather, with showers and clouds, is expected to continue into Monday as the warm and humid airmass gets washed away. The news is not all bad, however — after the front passes Monday evening, a seasonal airmass will move into the area. This will bring with it the return of highs in the mid 70’s and lower humidity with pleasant weather in the forecast through the upcoming work week.

Things will gradually warm up again by the end of the week, with warm air advection bringing a chance of some showers into the forecast as well. Stay tuned for more updates and details as the week moves along. Have a great Sunday evening!

Update: Slight Risk of severe storms from SPC

/0 Comments/by

The Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of Northern New Jersey, Southeast New York ,Connecticut, and the New York City Metro Area in a “Slight Risk” for severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. The “Slight Risk” category is triggered by probabilities of severe weather within 25 miles of a point — and in this case the SPC indicates a 15%-30% chance of severe storms within 25 miles of any point in that area.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over Pennsylvania and New York later this afternoon before moving into Western New England and Southeast New York. The storms may then eventually drop south and east towards Northern NJ and New York City. However, confidence is higher in the potential for storms to the north of our area. Here, better shear and instability parameters are juxtaposed to support organized severe thunderstorm potential. One forecast model, run for the Storm Prediction Center, suggests the storms may move farther south — into Northern NJ and NYC ( see below ).

SPC-WRF model, forecasting strong thunderstorms impacting the NYC Area Wednesday evening.

SPC-WRF model, forecasting strong thunderstorms impacting the NYC Area Wednesday evening.

After a warm front passed the area this morning, southwesterly winds ushered in a much warmer and more humid airmass. So, the potential exists for the strong storms to move into the NYC Area later this evening despite the fact that the better support for severe weather remains to the north.

Stay tuned for updates on potential watches and warnings from the National Weather Service through the afternoon (this post will be updated).