John Homenuk

Strong nor’easter will provide myriad of threats midweek

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GFS Model showing a strong nor’easter off the coast on Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning, with a surface pressure down to 978mb. Contours are winds at 900mb (max 72-74kts over NJ).

No rest for the weary. Just a week after Hurricane Sandy slammed into the New Jersey shore with widespread damaging impacts, another strong nor’easter is forecast to strengthen off the Mid Atlantic coast on Wednesday bringing more unsettled weather to the area — with the potential for heavy rain, high winds and even snow inland. The storm system is expected to provide a myriad of threats, but the exact details remain uncertain with the storm still 60 hours away and forecast models still struggling with the details.  We detail the threats below, and try to answer as many as your questions as we can.

How is this storm system developing? A piece of energy over the Southeast United States will swing eastward towards the coast, while another disturbance drops south out of Canada into the Tennessee Valley and phases with it. Yes, we’ve heard these terms before. The phase will allow the storm to strengthen off the coast once again. This time, the blocking to the north won’t be strong enough to force the storm well inland (it’s also not a tropical system hybrid) but the storm system is still forecast to be plenty strong as it develops off the coast and then gets tugged near the shore.

What are the main threats with the system? There are plenty. The system will be entering a very cool airmass which is in place across the region (check out how chilly it is today and tonight), and the high pressure will shift to the north and do its best to keep the cold air in place. This, with the storm system strengthening offshore, creates a threat for wind and rain along the coast, some storm surge, and the possibility of frozen precipitation for a period of time especially inland.

  • Rain: The system looks to  provide moderate amounts of rainfall throughout the entire area, with the potential for some heavier rain along the coasts and on Long Island. The one caveat to this is that the storm’s best period for strengthening and heavy precipitation will be south of the area — so the rain may be lighter by the time it gets here. We’ll have to watch this carefully.
  • Wind: This is not something you want to hear, we know. But the storm system looks to have a significant amount of wind with it, especially aloft. The difference between this storm and Hurricane Sandy other than the size and intensity is that the atmosphere will be less favorably set up for mixing these winds down to the surface. However, there may still be gusts over 60 miles per hour especially near the coasts. These type of wind gusts are still dangerous and could cause some downed trees and power lines, especially ones weakened by Sandy. The wind should be less of a threat over inland areas due to the stable northerly wind component, but still capable of gusts near 40-50mph.
  • Storm Surge/Flooding: This storm will occur, luckily, at a period between full moons and astro-low tides, whereas  Sandy occurred during a full moon at high tide. However, such a strong storm system as this one can still often produce a storm surge…yet it should be at least somewhat mitigated by the fact that the system is expected to remain offshore. That being said, prepare for the possibility of some coastal flooding once again — to repeat…we are not expecting widespread storm surge/coastal flooding..but it remains a distinct possibility that it will occur, to a lesser extent than it did during  Sandy.
  • Snow: Yes, snow is actually a threat with this system. The main area for potential snow and ice will be over interior New Jersey (Sussex, Warren counties) and New York (Orange County), but the threat for a period of snow or sleet could exist as far south as the immediate suburbs of New York City as the storm begins. Accumulations should be limited to the aforementioned inland counties and higher elevations, where if enough cold air works in, 2 to 4 inches of snow and ice aren’t out of the question.

What’s the timing for this storm system and how can I prepare for it? Clouds look to increase during the day on Wednesday with showers becoming likely by Wednesday afternoon. Steady rain will approach the area from the south and east on Wednesday afternoon and evening, beginning at the shores and moving inland. The precipitation (some of it frozen over the interior) will continue through Thursday morning throughout much of the area. The strongest winds look to occur Wednesday Night as the system makes its closest approach to the area.

What can change with this system and the forecast? A whole lot, actually, as forecast models are still fairly inconsistent with the track of the storm system. There has been some convergence on a track closer to the coast over the past 12 hours, but in general the forecast confidence remains low to moderate at best. This could change a whole lot in terms of sensible weather impacts, so stay tuned over the next day or so and we should be able to get a much higher confidence forecast.

John Homenuk

Forecast: Pleasant weather through midweek, nor’easter looms

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With power finally restored, we are able to resume our usual update schedule. We wanted to thank all of you for your patience, and we’re humbled to have actually gained followers during our down time. We also hope you are all doing well in recovery efforts from Hurricane Sandy. On to weather — the week will begin with a high pressure system in place, and a cold one at that. Mostly sunny skies are expected through Tuesday, with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s throughout the area. By Tuesday night, however, things could begin to go downhill. Forecast models are hinting at a potential nor’easter developing off the East Coast, with the potential for rain and the return of gusty winds. We’ll keep you updated as the details on the mid-week storm become more clear. For now, enjoy the next few days of pleasant weather on the way! Also, don’t forget to turn the clocks back an hour Saturday night.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, chilly, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Definitely bring a sweatshirt or jacket if you’re headed out. Sun sets at 5:04 (very early).

Sunday Night: Pleasant night, but a cold one. With the high pressure still firmly in place, expect temperatures to fall into the 20s and 30s throughout the area. Bundle up!

Monday: Same story, with northwest winds and a cool airmass still in place. Highs near 50 once again, with plenty of sun.

Looking Ahead: Things turn ugly mid-week as a nor’easter will try to develop beginning Tuesday Night. Forecast models are still indecisive on the potential, with a wide envelope of solutions…leaving us with low confidence. In the worst case scenario, the storm strengthens to our south and east bringing heavy rain (maybe some snow inland/higher elevations), strong gusty winds, and some rough seas. Best case scenario still on the table? The storm doesn’t affect us at all. For now, stay tuned for updates. We’re watching it carefully.

John Homenuk

Cleanup Begins After Sandy Hammers Area

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Hurricane Sandy slammed into the New Jersey Coast near Atlantic City last night, and brought a ferocity rarely seen from storms systems in this part of the country. The storm was near a record low pressure at landfall at landfall, and the track and intensity brought severe hurricane force winds, heavy rain, beach erosion, historical damaging coastal flooding and storm surge. As the cleanup continues, we step aside but also answer some questions you may have remaining and analyze several pieces of the storm.

Storm Surge: The storm surge began early Monday in Central New Jersey as Sandy was still hundreds of miles southeast of the area. By later Monday, the surge was rapidly pushing sea water into the streets of coastal cities such as Atlantic City, Ocean City, Long Beach Island, and Long Branch. The waters continued to flood into Tuesday morning up and down the New Jersey shore.

Historical storm surge occurred after the system made landfall, as high tide juxtaposed with hurricane force southeast gales. This pushed a wall of water into the south shores of Long Island and New York Harbor. Record storm tide levels were reached at The Battery, where the water reached nearly 14 feet. The previous record stood at 10.1 feet. The surge in the Hudson and East rivers sent water pouring into the streets of mid and lower manhattan. The rivers also spilled into Jersey City and Hoboken. Significant flooding was observed in the subway stations near and underneath the East River. The subway system may inoperable for weeks.

The southeasterly gales also brought a wall of water to the south facing shores of Long Island, Long Beach, the Rockaways, South Brooklyn, as well as many other locations which saw the water pour into the streets from the beach.

Winds: Hurricane force wind gusts were widespread throughout the area — almost everyone experienced them at some point. Arguably the strongest winds occurred after the system was near landfall, as mixing improved in the low levels of the atmosphere with cold air advection beginning as the system transitioned to post tropical. This was a disaster waiting to happen, as strong winds were ripping just above the surface and could not more effectively mix down to the surface. Gusts of near 90 miles per hour were reported at many official stations in the NYC Area — unprecedented.

The winds downed thousands of trees in towns and transformers were seen flashing in the sky, exploding as trees and branches fell on power lines and winds continued. The winds also attributed to what will eventually be seen as one of the most severe beach erosion episodes in history.

We compiled as list of some of the highest wind gusts in the area:

Eatons Neck, LI – 96 mph
Islip – 90 mph
Montclair- 88 mph
Madison (New Haven) – 86 mph
Kennedy Airport – 79 mph
La Guardia Airport – 74 mph
Central Park – 62 mph

Flooding Rain: The flooding rain was not as much of an issue over Northern NJ and NYC as it was over Southwestern New Jersey. The flooding (rain aside) was tremendous in response to the aforementioned storm surge and winds. Thousands of homes are destroyed, millions are without power.

Was this storm everything we expected it to be? Yes, and the damage more than we thought it would be. The storm was historic in many aspects — and the billion dollars of damage it caused, and effect it had on people’s lives, is remarkable

Will we see something like this again? Not likely for a very, very long time. The storm you just witnessed was a once in a century type storm. It required a specific set of events to go completely according to plan in exact order, and certain atmospheric variables needed to be perfectly in place. As a meteorologist, watching this unfold was truly remarkable and humbling. But most importantly, I hope that in disseminating the information we did, that we helped to keep you informed and prepared..and hopefully saved lives.

To all affected, wish you all the best.

John Homenuk

Forecast: Cloudy start, but clearing for the weeks end

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NAM forecast model showing low temperatures the morning of Wednesday 10/23/12. Notice how temperatures remain in the 60’s overnight, especially near the warmer oceans.

A stationary/slowed warm front near the area caused unsettled weather beginning on the second half of Tuesday. The unsettled weather is expected to continue through Tuesday Night and into early Wednesday, with a chance of showers continuing throughout parts of the area and clouds hanging around for a while. By later Wednesday, the front will be on the move to the north and east, which should help move the clouds and showers out of the way at least briefly. We aren’t expecting a big warm up, though, as the area will remain in a cool “pocket” of mid level temperatures while areas in the Mid-Atlantic get warmer. Still, high temperatures will get into the 60’s on Wed-Thu and possibly warmer than that on Friday where we could see temperatures move into the mid 70’s in parts of the area.

Tonight:  Mostly cloudy with periods of light rain expected overnight. Southeast winds around 10 miles per hour — raw with the winds off the water for much of the area. Temperatures falling only into the middle 50’s (closer to 60 in the city and near the water). Bring a sweatshirt and/or an umbrella if you’re headed out.

Wednesday: Light rain expected in the morning, with mostly cloudy skies. The rain will become more sporadic by afternoon, with some breaks in the clouds possible…but drizzle will remain a possibility through the day. High temperatures in the 50’s and 60’s north, 70’s south (over Southwest NJ).

Weekend Storm Update: Generally status quo on the potential significant storm system this weekend. Forecast models are still split on potential with roughly half of them keeping the Tropical Storm un-phased with the Eastern US trough and out to sea, while the other half phase the two and bring a large powerful storm near the area (with heavy rain, high winds, beach erosion..i.e a very high impact system). Uncertainty is still higher than normal for a medium range forecast. We will have a full post with updates and potential scenarios up either late tonight or Wednesday.

Stay tuned to our Facebook and Twitter for continuous updates!