John Homenuk

After rain, near average temperatures return

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It has certainly felt a bit cooler lately, especially after an early surge of heat in April and parts of May. You would think, given the past few weeks, that we might be below-average in the temperature department. . But despite a pattern which has featured several days of rain and clouds, the first (almost) half of June 2012 has averaged temperatures near normal. The story of this week will be a similar one, with rain on Tuesday and early Wednesday giving way to near average temperatures the rest of the week and leading into the weekend. A weak trough off the East Coast will prevent a surge of heat which is expected to effect the Midwest and Central United States beginning later this week, but temperatures will still warm up to slightly above normal levels by then. The good news, for our area, will be a general lack of high-precipitation events through the time period. The rain early Wednesday looks like the last-hoorah for the rain until at least the weekend, as high pressure will be sandwiched in between our area with a trough off to both our west and east. We could see clouds back in the forecast, however, by this weekend in response to a backdoor front and some marine/ocean air being pushed inland.

Stay tuned over the next few days for updates on the weather this weekend — including the timing of clouds from the backdoor front and any potential precipitation events down the road.

John Homenuk

Chance of storms continues the next few days

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An upper level low continues to spin over the Northeast US as we reach the middle of the week, and although it is forecast to slowly erode and then

Temperature departure from normal expected on Wednesday morning from the GFS model (Policlimate)

drift eastward over the Northwest Atlantic, the system will continue to bring impacts to the area on both Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop both days, in response to energy in the atmosphere that is meandering around the upper level low pressure system. Such an occurrence is not overly rare, but the system is providing unusually cool temperatures for this time of year. With high temperatures in the low 60’s on both Monday and Tuesday, New York City saw temperature departures from normal of nearly -10 degrees — a stark difference to the theme of the past several months. The showers and thunderstorms which are possible on both Wednesday and Thursday could also add to a building statistic of days with rain — 25 of 36 days featured rain dating back to May 1, 2012. Forecast models continue showing temperature departures of 3 to 5 degrees below normal on Wednesday, with a rebound towards near normal on Thursday. The mornings will be cooler than normal (see the image on the right, valid early Wednesday morning) but the afternoons will warm up towards near-normal as we reach the end of the week.

The cool air will only stick around for so long, though, so don’t be totally fooled by its presence. Forecast models are in good agreement on a return to normal temperatures. In fact, many of them are already hinting at a return of potential heat (90+ F temps) by the middle of next week, and continuing through the middle and end of the month.

John Homenuk

May 2012 Recap: Wetter, but still above normal

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The streak continues: May 2012 was unable to break the streak of over 13 straight months which have finished above normal in the temperature

Temperature departures from normal in the United States during the month of May 2012 (HPRCC)

department in New York City. Such a streak is not unprecedented, but is becoming very impressive with each month that passes. The last month which registered a below normal departure from average was March of 2011, which seems like a distant memory at this point. The more you analyze the statistics, the more impressive they become. Every single month beginning with April 2011 has been above normal in NYC — including the Summer and Autumn of 2011, and Winter and Spring of 2012. May 2012 featured several rainy days, and several days with bel0w-normal departures, but a late-month surge of heat was enough to keep departures above normal. Still, since May 1st 2012, 24 of 35 days have featured rain (measurable precipitation in New York City). To have such a high amount of days with precipitation, but still average temperatures 2 to 4 degrees above normal is pretty remarkable. That being said, the month finished above normal in the temperature department across much of the Central and Eastern United States, stretching from the Northeast through the Great Lakes and Plains into the Desert Southwest. The above-normal departures certainly were not localized to our area.

The May 2012 Stats for NYC (Central Park)…

Temperature departure from normal: +2.7

Highest observed temperature: 89 (5/28, 5/29)

Lowest observed temperature: 49 (5/11)

Total rainfall: 5.38″ (+1.19″ departure from normal)

Frequently occurring unsettled weather (# of days with occurrence): Fog (20), Light Rain (18), Haze (10), Rain (8), Heavy Rain (6)

 

 

John Homenuk

Period of heavy rain likely tonight into Saturday AM

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A dynamic storm system moving through the Northeast US will bring a slew of significant weather effects to the Mid-Atlantic states today. In fact, the

Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook showing a rare moderate risk over the DC Region, and less risk in our area. (Storm Prediction Center)

Storm Prediction Center has issued a rare Moderate Risk (the second in just one week on the East Coast), this time farther to our south over the Mid-Atlantic including the Capital region as well as parts of Maryland and Virginia. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected there, with a heightened potential for tornadoes, some potentially strong. For more information on the severe weather threat there, visit our friends at Capital Weather, the Storm Prediction Center, or the Washington D.C National Weather Service. In our area, the severe weather threat will much less (in fact, it will be quite low).

The culprit in the difference in weather? A warm front, which lies between the Mid-Atlantic and our area. This warm front is allowing for warm and unstable air to surge into the Mid-Atlantic, while keeping our area cooler and more stable. Overnight tonight, this front will move north and a cold front will sweep through, bringing a period of rain (possibly heavy at times) through the area. A rumble of thunder or a gust of strong wind isn’t out of the question, but the severe weather threat is overall expected to be very low.

The good news is that clearing is expected by late-morning on Saturday, giving way to fair weather and temperatures in the 70’s by Saturday afternoon and evening. Some showers and storms could be scattered around on Sunday afternoon, but the weekend certainly doesn’t look like a washout.