Forecast models have trended toward a more amplified solution with a mid and upper level atmospheric disturbance, which will swing through the Mid Atlantic states on Thursday. A low pressure area at the surface, developing as a result of the disturbance aloft, will move from the Mid Atlantic States to a position south of New England. But its exact track remains highly uncertain, and will determine the sensible weather effects in the Northeast.
Much of the uncertainty stems from the interaction between two disturbances from the northern and southern jet streams in the atmosphere. Both of these disturbances are still very far away from our area — one over Canada and the other in the Pacific. These are critical components to the forecast that likely won’t be resolved for another 24 hours or so. A fast flow in the atmosphere will quickly bring them into the United States this week.
As the disturbances interact, a main mid level disturbance will develop and shift towards the Mid Atlantic coast. As a low pressure system develops, lift for precipitation will strengthen and expand to its northwest. As you can imagine, pinning down exactly where this low pressure tracks will be critical. Some forecast models are still further southeast with the low pressure center, suggesting lesser impacts in the Northeast US — while others are more impactful all around.
While the atmospheric flow is fast and progressive (i.e, no tremendous snow amounts are expected) an impactful storm seems to be an increasing possibility on Thursday. Most model suites and ensemble guidance have converged today on a low pressure track envelope that will ensure at least light impacts — with the potential for more depending on track.
We break down the intricacies of the atmospheric setup in more detail right here in our Premium Zone video discussion:
