Miguel Pierre

(Premium) Record Breaking Cold Possible Sunday Morning… Another Storm Next Week?

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A piece or lobe of the Polar Vortex will swing south over the Great Lakes and Northeast. This supports an Arctic front passing through Friday night. Some snow showers or snow squalls are possible again tomorrow night with this front. Behind this front will be a potentially historic cold airmass for parts of Northeast. Saturday will see temperatures fall from the lower 20s to teens and single digits during the afternoon hours. Winds will also be increasing, as wind gusts between 30mph to 40mph are possible during the day. Thus, windchills will drop to near or below zero and may approach dangerous levels by Saturday evening.

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Miguel Pierre

Winter Forecast Update: Colder February, increased snow chances

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What a turn around this winter has been able to pull off over the past week or two. Record-breaking warmth in December gave way to arctic blasts and a historic, crippling blizzard this month. We also saw an atypical fantastic performance prior to the blizzard by the NAM model for this region. We warned the winter could return with a vengeance in a public article we wrote shortly after Christmas. Pattern signals and ensemble guidance were strongly hinting at opportunities for more cold and snow.

While many aspects of our Winter Forecast published in November have worked out, there have been setbacks and surprises as well. This post will serve as an update and stepping stone for the several weeks of winter still left to come.

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Miguel Pierre

Despite strong signal, models differ on late week winter storm

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Forecast models are a complicated thing: Meteorologists know, when major storms are looming, that they can often provide major hints and clues into how the atmosphere is going to evolve. Unfortunately, many readers or the general public don’t fully understand that models should be used for guidance, and not as fact. Quite possibly, the misunderstanding stems from meteorologists inability to communicate that.

Global models over the past few days have been strongly signaling the potential for a major East Coast storm system later this week. More specifically, many of them have been signaling the potential for a significant winter storm in our area. However, closer inspection of these global models reveals several large differences — and reasons why confidence is very low in any specific storm evolution as we move forward.

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Miguel Pierre

Despite two disturbances, winter weather unlikely this weekend

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In our previous article, we discussed some of the features in the upcoming hemispheric pattern that could support a winter weather event. These features were particularly evident during the period from January 16th to 20th. As we have gotten closer to this time period, forecast models have come into much better agreement on exactly how these features will evolve.

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