UPDATE: Significant Winter Storm Aimed At The East Coast, Dangerous Cold Friday & Saturday

Good evening! 

Today has been yet another in an impressive stretch of days below-freezing across the majority of the Northeast! Conditions were mainly calm, with patches of mid to high level clouds racing from southwest to northeast due to a strong/developing jet stream over the Northeast. An area of high pressure has been quickly moving offshore, which has shifted winds to the south over portions of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England. This subtle change was enough to bring in temperatures in the middle to upper 20’s for most of the NYC metro area, with 30’s further to the south. As we head into the night, we expect cloud cover to gradually increase as the large area of low pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean begins to expand substantially to the west and ushers in some mid-lower level clouds. Southerly low level flow will keep conditions a bit warmer than the past few nights, but expect lows to stay in the lower to middle 20’s over the immediate NYC metro, with upper teens likely to the north and west. Things should stay dry for most of the area up until midnight, when some initial light to moderate snow may begin to nose into the southern portions of New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

QUICK LINKS: Latest Snowfall Forecast | Latest Video Discussion

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Simulated IR Satellite from the HRDPS model (Tropical Tidbits)

Video Analysis: Trends and Intricacies of Upcoming Powerful Winter Storm

Good evening! It has become apparent now that a large and powerful storm system is on the way for late Wednesday night and Thursday, but this forecast is more complicated than usual. With the storm growing powerful so quickly, at a far south latitude and with a plethora of convection, we will be in uncharted territory as far as forecasting goes – in other words, common meteorology assumptions will need to be more closely analyzed and thought through.

Our latest video analyzes all of the intricacies regarding this storm, including the multiple pieces of energy involved, how a more powerful southern stream wave can change the entire forecast, how a further west track does not necessarily mean heavier snow for the area, yet a few small westward ticks could mean parts of the area receives a major blizzard. The trends in the modeling regarding the strength and interaction of these pieces of energy is also quite fascinating to watch unfold, and it’s why the GFS model made a rapid shift towards a snowier solution.

Any solution from a minor graze to a significant to major snowstorm is still very much on the table, and while a moderate “blend” may be the way to go with the forecast, it is very important to communicate all of the possibilities and how because of these complex intricacies, it’s harder to communicate them than usual.


Powerful ocean storm likely this week, impacts remain uncertain

Good afternoon! Forecast models have been honing in on the development of a major coastal storm during the week ahead for several days now, and over the past few days in particular have gotten more intense in regards to its formation. A myriad of factors will lead to a heightened chance of rapid strengthening as the storm emerges from the Bahamas and tracks northward off the US East Coast. But the track of the system, and its resulting impacts, remain highly uncertain.

As is the case with a large majority of storms that develop off the East Coast, the system’s development is the result of very intricate interactions in all levels of the atmosphere. In this case, two distinct disturbances – one emanating from the Pacific Ocean and the other meandering over the Plains and eventually Southern United States – will interact in the Southeast States. The result of the interaction will aid in the development of the mentioned low pressure system, but exactly how and when it occurs will determine where the storm tracks and how intense it becomes.

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ECMWF precip type map valid for Saturday afternoon. (wx.graphics)

First Accumulating Snow of the Season Becoming Likely for the East Coast

Good afternoon! In the world of weather, there has been a lot of model mayhem regarding a big shift in the data further northwest with a coastal storm, which is leading to the idea of accumulating snow across much of the Eastern US on Saturday. We believe that these ideas have a lot of merit, and in this article we are going to explain why, as well as overview some of our expectations.

In the macro sense, it’s not a complicated setup. We have a large ridge in the West, and a corresponding deep trough in the East, we have disturbances sliding down the ridge and entering the trough, and we also have a relatively stalled frontal boundary off the coast, providing a strong temperature gradient for a storm to ride, while also providing enough ridging in the Atlantic to keep the storm from sliding out to sea.

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