Forecast Dashboard – Page 71 – New York Metro Weather

Overview

Briefing

Hot and humid conditions will continue through Tuesday. Chances for showers and t-storms will increase as a cold front approaches on Wednesday. More comfortable warmth and humidity is expected late week.

Forecaster’s Discussion

Near Term

Last Updated: 9:30am Thursday, July 26th 2019 by MP

Near Term (through tonight)

High pressure will provide mostly sunny skies today. 850mb temperatures around 12-13 C with deep mixing and light northwest downslope winds will support high temperatures closer to normal-in the middle 80s throughout much of the region. Humidity will still be relatively low, which will make for another beautiful mid-summer day.

Tonight, will remain mostly clear with light winds. This will result in more radiation cooling. Low temperatures are likely to in the mid 60s many of suburbs and in upper 60s to near 70 degrees in NYC and urban areas. Some of the far northern Interior valleys will likely drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Short/Long Term

Last Updated: 9:30am Thursday, July 25th, 2019 by MP

Short/Long term (Friday through Wednesday)

A warming trend and increasing humidity is expected as move into Friday and the weekend, as upper-level ridging builds and a return southwest flow develops around high pressure off Mid-Atlantic coast. Temperatures will trend above normal again with highs in the mid-upper 80s or lower 90s each day. Sea-breezes will keep shore areas a little cooler. A few weak passing mid-level shortwaves, thermal troughs with increasing instability could help trigger few isolated showers or t-storms over the Interior. But mainly tranquil weather is expected through the weekend.

A couple stronger disturbances moving along the northern periphery of the ridge, may increase convection chances during the early or middle of part next week. But very warm and humid conditions will likely remain with temperatures in upper 80s or lower 90s again.

Extended Term (8-14+ Days)

Last Updated: 10:00am Thursday, July 25th, 2019 by MP

Extended Term (early August)

The pattern for the first couple of weeks of August will likely dominated by the Western Atlantic ridge with more surges of warmth and humidity for the Northeast US. This is supported by the lower AAM/MJO forcing progression through the Indian Ocean. Whether or not a more significant heat wave develops will depend on how much the EPO/NAO allows for the ridge to expand. A weakness in the ridge closer to the East Coast, may also support an active pattern with more convective threats.

In fact, the latest GEFS and EPS guidance indicates strong anomalous blocking ridge causing a heatwave in Europe will retrgrode back into Artic/NAO regions. This may result a period lower heights and somewhat cooler temperatures over the Northeast US, before the Western Atlantic ridge can flex back again.

Hello

Spring weather finally on the way later this week

April 9, 2018/1 Comment/by John Homenuk

At long last. Forecast models have come into agreement on a pattern evolution that will support Spring-like weather throughout the Eastern part of the United States later this week and into this weekend, as a strong storm system develops in the Northern Plains states and then ejects northeastward towards the Great Lakes. A frontal boundary […]

Unsettled Weather into Saturday, Snowstorm Threat Decreases

April 6, 2018/1 Comment/by Miguel Pierre

Good morning! It’s been very active since the first week of March, with high-latitude blocking and anomalously cold air resulting in late season snowstorms for the Northeast states. April 2018 will wind up being one of the snowiest for many of the local climatology sites. However, it appears that we might be getting a break […]

Storms and gusty winds today, more snow ahead?

April 4, 2018/1 Comment/by Miguel Pierre

I suppose that sometimes you have to throw your hands up and say “fine”. That’s exactly what we’ll be doing this week as we track another potential winter weather event. But lets get to the weather at hand first – it’s stormy, dreary, windy and mild. Showers this morning will give way to cloudy and […]