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Forecast: Pleasant work week ahead

Although it may still technically be summer on the calendar, meteorological seasons seem to be the better indicator of sensible weather so far this week — especially this morning as low temperatures fell into the 40’s and 50’s with some upper 30’s in the northwest suburbs. The cool temperatures are occurring as a result of a cold front, which passed through last night and ushered in a cool (but progressive) airmass from Canada. These airmasses typically become increasingly common as the autumn goes on, but don’t stick around for too long early in the season. This year will be no different, as the week will feature pleasant weather but moderating temperatures.
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PM Update: Chilly evening on the way

Pleasant weather had gripped the area over the last few days, until clouds moved in early this morning and showers affected the area until about noon. The dreary and rainy conditions of this morning weren’t a result of a weak or irrelevant disturbance, however. Instead, they were associated with a reinforcing shot of cold air which comes just 5 days after high temperatures reached the upper 90’s in many locations. Temperatures at the 850mb level of the atmosphere can often be a good indication as to where the weather pattern is situated temperature and sensible-weather wise, and this time around is no different. Comparing 850mb temperatures to 5 days ago yields an eye opening change: 850mb temperatures reached 22 C last Wednesday, and will fall to near 2 C overnight tonight.

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PM Update: Plenty of sun, low humidity

The sun is setting this evening on a gorgeous late-summer day (or early autumn if you’re using the meteorological calendar), and the main change in terms of sensible weather has been the drop in humidity. The past several days had featured rising dew points and increasing clouds with unsettled weather. But a cold front which moved through on Tuesday set the stage for a gorgeous Wednesday — and a persistent pleasant pattern which looks to settle into the area over the next several days. Light westerly winds and clear skies were the theme Wednesday, and look to be the theme through the weekend. A reinforcing shot of cold air, arriving just ahead of a mid level atmospheric disturbance on Thursday, will make things borderline chilly on Friday morning.

NAM model showing forecast low temperatures from Thursday Night into Friday morning. Upper 30's and 40's are common in the suburban areas of New England.

NAM model showing forecast low temperatures from Thursday Night into Friday morning. Upper 30’s and 40’s are common in the suburban areas of New England.

Forecast models show a disturbance moving through New England from Thursday into Friday, dragging a cold front south of our area into the Mid-Atlantic. The airmass from Canada which it brings along for the ride will only graze the area for a brief time, but 850mb temperatures will fall to the single digits (near zero in New England) with clear skies and light winds expected Thursday into Friday. Accordingly, forecast models show low temperatures falling into the 40’s in the interior suburbs, and 30’s in parts of New England.

Daytime highs on Friday could struggle to reach the lower 70’s — so it will certainly be feeling more like Autumn. Things recover a bit into the weekend, but the general theme of pleasant conditions with temperatures in the 70’s and perfect sleeping weather overnight will continue.