Posts

John Homenuk

Complex setup, powerful coastal storm to graze area

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An anomalous and powerful coastal storm is likely to graze the area late this weekend and early next week, with a tremendous breadth of precipitation as the center of low pressure passes hundreds of miles to our east in the Atlantic Ocean. Forecast models have come into better agreement on the evolution of  a large and intense mid and upper level system, with an impressively strong trough moving from the Southeast States to a position southeast of New England by Monday.

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John Homenuk

Snow likely with accumulations Friday morning

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Forecast models have trended farther northwest — and stronger — with a low pressure system, which is forecast to develop on a frontal boundary off the East Coast from late Thursday into Friday. This is the same frontal boundary which crossed the area on Wednesday Night and Thursday morning, brining the area rain and wind.

Models suggest that as the frontal boundary moves offshore, a secondary area of energy in the mid levels of the atmosphere approaches the area. This energy provides enough lift for precipitation, with sufficient moisture, with precipitation redeveloping to the west of the offshore front. After beginning as rain, precipitation is likely to change to snow — with accumulating snow possible during the morning commute on Friday

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John Homenuk

Light accumulating snow possible today and tonight

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It appears this weekends coastal storm has a few more tricks up its sleeve. After forecast models indicated the storm had a chance of significantly impacting the area, the trend was decidedly seaward over the past few days. The past 24 hours, however, have seen a steady trend northwestward with the precipitation shield, enough to offer up impacts for our area later today and tonight.

While the center of low pressure will pass hundreds of miles to our south and east, light precipitation associated with the storm system – and the overhead trough – will spread northeastward from the Mid Atlantic into our area today. Thermal profiles will support snow, albeit light, after the atmosphere moistens up enough so that precipitation can reach the ground. Initially, radar may show precipitation, but dry air will win the battle and prevent steady snow.

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John Homenuk

Coastal storm expected to skirt offshore this weekend

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This mornings operations at the forecast desk could almost be mistaken for mid-winter. All kidding aside, forecast models have jumped around over the past several days in regards to the track and intensity of a coastal storm system which is now expected to pass just barely south and east of our area on Friday. The storm itself is forming due to an energetic mid level atmospheric disturbance, which will drive southeastward into the Mid Atlantic states later today and Friday. This will aid in the development of a surface low pressure system, and plenty of atmospheric moisture will help develop precipitation across the Mid Atlantic States.

Perhaps most notable is the fact that this atmospheric energy is undercutting a very fast atmospheric flow to its north, over the Great Lakes and New England. This means that the storm system won’t have much room to move northward — and its development will be shunted to the east instead of expanding northward and westward. Fast northwesterly winds aloft will keep the pattern moving, especially over New England. So the low pressure system at the surface will respond accordingly, developing from the Mid Atlantic and then seaward toward the Western Atlantic Ocean.

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