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Morning roundup: Unsettled, coastal storm slips by

Temperatures in the 50’s and 60’s made this Tuesday morning feel extra Autumn-like, despite easterly winds and an onshore flow. Clouds were more prevalent over southern/eastern areas of New Jersey and Long Island. The marine air will continue pushing westward today, and the gusty winds and higher surf will return to the area shores once again. The clouds and showers won’t necessarily be widespread, but they’ll certainly put a bit of a damper on the day.

A developing coastal storm, owing to a mid level disturbance passing near the East Coast, will bring a period of rain very close to the New Jersey and Long Island coasts on Tuesday morning and afternoon. But westerly winds pressing on the system aloft will keep the precipitation from spreading inland. Instead, breaks in the clouds will be just as common as scattered showers throughout the area — and so while Tuesday won’t be sunny and bright, it won’t necessarily be a washout either.

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Active, more autumn-like pattern this week

After a hot and humid start to the weekend, a major cold front brought thunderstorms and a drop in temperatures. The pattern which has settled in to start this week is much more autumn-like, with temperatures in the 70’s and lower 80’s and much more comfortable dew points and humidity values. The pattern, however, will turn more volatile by the middle of this upcoming week with multiple storm systems and unsettled weather.

The trend toward more unsettled weather will begin late Monday into Tuesday, as an onshore flow develops and strengthens. Winds will pick up near the area shores, gusting over 25 miles per hour at times as an easterly fetch brings clouds and low level moisture inland from the beaches. This will bring an end to the sunshine which will dominate much of Monday. A mid level disturbance moving northward from the Mid-Atlantic states will aid in the development of showers, spreading into parts of New Jersey from southwest to northeast on Tuesday.

NAM model forecasting gusty winds along the shore Monday Night into Tuesday.

NAM model forecasting gusty winds along the shore Monday Night into Tuesday.

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Images, updates as massive Nor’Easter slams Cape Cod

What may eventually be the strongest Nor’Easter in the past 20 years or more is currently developing to the south and east of New England, deepening rapidly to some of the lowest pressures observed in a non-tropical storm system in the Northwest Atlantic on record. Although the storm system spared our area major impacts, parts of Cape Cod and especially Nantucket are feeling the brunt of the developing low pressure system. We’ll follow along today and post some of the latest images, information and news as it comes through.

Water Vapor satellite imagery showing massive storm system in the Northwest Atlantic

Water Vapor satellite imagery showing massive storm system in the Northwest Atlantic

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Strongest storm of season likely to spare our area

In what will all but certainly be winters dying breath, a large and powerful coastal storm will develop Tuesday into Wednesday off the southeast states while traversing northeastward to a position southeast of the 40/70 benchmark. In doing so, and owing to a major phase in the mid levels of the atmosphere, the storm will strengthen rapidly and explosively — dropping from around 990mb to somewhere in the 950’s mb. This will make the system the strongest of the season by far, and the strongest in our area since Hurricane Sandy.

The aforementioned phase involves three disturbances which originate from different parts of the mid level flow and jet stream. Pacific and polar energy will merge over the Northeast United States, and a favorable jet structure will allow for rapid strengthening of the low pressure system. More notable for us, however, is how all of this will occur a hair too slow and a tick too far east/northeast — allowing us to dodge what would’ve otherwise been an incredibly high impact storm system.

NAM model showing a major storm system developing offshore, barely grazing the coast.

NAM model showing a major storm system developing offshore, barely grazing the coast.

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