Coastal Storm Archives - Page 8 of 9 - New York Metro Weather

Powerful ocean storm likely, worst impacts may stay seaward

March 23, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

A mid and upper level atmospheric phase is likely to force the development of a significant coastal storm, which will rapidly develop off the East Coast early next week. The storm system is expected to begin strengthening off the southeast coast of the United States, before shifting northeastward over time. As a phase between multiple disturbances occurs in the mid levels of the atmosphere, and the mid and upper level jet streaks become favorable for strengthening, the surface low pressure will deepen rapidly and the storm system will mature.

Forecast models have come into better agreement over the past few cycles in regards to the track and intensity of the system, namely the area where the system will strengthen most as a result of the occurring phase. Arguably the most notable development in terms of sensible weather in our area, is the fact that the system will “hook” eastward before phasing, taking a track from a point southeast of the Outer Banks to a position south of the 40/70 benchmark. This likely will spare our area from significant precipitation in direct relation to the coastal low, as well as more widespread wind or coastal flooding impacts.

Euro model showing a significant storm a few hundred miles off the Northeast US Coast early next week.

Concern rising for potential winter storm next week

March 20, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

The drum of what seems like an endless winter keeps beating on, and despite the warmth which has engulfed the area for a brief time this weekend, the beat will continue through the next 7 to 10 days. All forecast models agree on below normal temperature departures becoming a common theme from the Central to Eastern United States beginning Sunday and continuing through the greater part of the upcoming week. Making things more interesting, undoubtedly, is the signal for a major coastal storm system on all forecast models and their ensembles. This has forecasters and hobbyists alike raising an eyebrow with eyes peeled on the potential system, which could impact the Eastern and Northeast US early next week.

Simply ripping and reading off forecast model’s specific outputs at this range, however, will get you nowhere. We’ve been down this road many times — several times this winter alone. A few operational forecast models start to show snowstorms in the medium range, a few people share it on social networks with big dramatic words, and suddenly all of the NYC Metro Area is lining up at Home Depot and Walmart. What needs to be understood is that, at this range in specific, any specific solution or outcome on forecast models is somewhat unlikely — and the bigger storm systems have very intricate details that won’t be ironed out until the event draws nearer. The counterpoint, with this system, however is the overwhelming majority of guidance now showing the threat. And when that starts to occur on operational and ensemble guidance, it becomes prudent to look at the meteorology behind the potential system.

GFS model showing a significant coastal storm staying east of the area early next week.

Live Blog: High impact coastal storm through Thursday

February 12, 2014/1 Comment/by John Homenuk

A high impact storm system will affect the area beginning later Wednesday evening, and continuing throughout much of Thursday. Significant amounts of snow, periods of rain and sleet, gusty winds and coastal flooding are all expected hazards. Wednesday night a strong storm system will develop off the Carolina coast, owing to a powerful mid and upper level trough and shortwave. Phasing disturbances aloft will eventually reach the East Coast, which will help shift the coastal system north and eventually northeastward from the Mid Atlantic to the shores of New England.

With significant impacts expected, we have opened up our live blog for discussion throughout the overnight period beginning at 7:00pm February 12th, 2014. Throughout this time, our meteorologists will check in and continue to update the live blog (and the website products, of course) with information. Even better, the live blog will feature our staff’s thoughts on the event as it is unfolding. This way, you’re never in the dark when it comes to the forecast or the storm which is evolving. Keep it right here tonight and during the storm on Thursday. We have included some handy links to our recently issued products below, followed by the live blog below that. Note: We are using a brand new software, so bear with us if there are any kinks (and let us know, if you can). If we have any significant problems, we will revert to our basic text update system. (Click read more if you are on the homepage to see the live blog)

Update: Cloudy and drizzly now, heavier rains tonight

October 10, 2013/0 Comments/by Doug Simonian

After a brief bout of rain this morning, most of the area is currently in a dry-slot. Lots of dry air has filtered into the region thanks to a high pressure system to the north. And considering the storm is still well to the south of the area, there is not enough lift in the atmosphere at our latitude to consistently supply rain. This is why our forecast called for the heaviest rain to be tonight and tomorrow morning, rather than today.

The water vapor imagery shows dry air filtering into our storm system, but lots of cold cloud tops to the east that will eventually head our way.

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