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NYC Forecast: Chilly today, arctic air awaits this weekend

weatherrateMuch colder air filtered into the area late on Monday evening and continued to do so into early Tuesday morning. The change comes on the heels of a major cold front, which pushed through the early on Monday. Temperatures fell into the 30’s overnight — and the temperature drop at the 850mb level was equally as impressive, falling to near – 10 C in northern parts of the area on Tuesday morning. Highs on Tuesday will only scrape into the 40’s, with blustery winds especially early. The combination of the two will make it feel pretty cold, especially after Monday which featured highs in the middle 60’s with a very warm sun.

The forecast takes us through a bit of moderation as we look ahead to the middle of the week, as the cold airmass over the region currently will begin to lose its grip on the pattern. High temperatures look to warm a few degrees each day, from the mid to upper 40’s on Tuesday, into the mid to upper 50’s by Thursday. The moderation will come ahead of a potential arctic plunge, however, as another strong front and associated disturbance approach the area this weekend.

In the shorter term, winds calm by tonight and clear skies are expected through the overnight period with temperatures dropping into the 20’s inland and near 30 in the city/urban areas. Great viewing for the expected 730pm Minotaur rocket launch from Wallops Island in Virginia. You can catch a glimpse of the launch by simply looking southeast at that time — the rocket will appear in the skies 30 to 60 seconds after launch. More forecast details after the break.

Timing of first sighting above horizon by location, for tonight's 730pm planned rocket launch.

Timing of first sighting above horizon by location, for tonight’s 730pm planned rocket launch.

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PM Update: Cold, but warming by late week

The coldest night (and day) of the year occurred on Wednesday, as low temperatures dipped into the teens and 20s overnight. Daytime highs struggled out of the mid to upper 30’s on Wednesday afternoon, more typical for low temperatures this time of year. The much below normal temperatures come as a result of an arctic airmass, which swung through the region over the past day or two and will continue to swing eastward by Thursday. New York City’s temperature fell below 30 F, the earliest date it has done so since November 10 2004.

The progressive nature of the mid and upper level patterns over the last few weeks means one thing — airmasses are not going to settle into the area. Not surprisingly, warming is expected by later this week — we could even reach into the 60’s this weekend.

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Cold start, slowly warming this week

The growing season ended early Monday morning throughout much of the interior, down to the immediate suburbs of Western Union and Essex counties. The winds kept radiational cooling from performing too well, however, and much of the 5 Boros of NYC remained above freezing — so the growing season will technically continue there until the next freeze. Although it may seem very brisk today (temperatures will struggle into the 50’s Monday afternoon), the cold air will be rather brief. Temperatures are expected to slowly warm this week, with highs reaching into the 60’s by later this week ahead of a cold front. The roller coaster of temperatures has been a trend of late, with a similar event occurring last week ahead of a front and storm system.

HRRR model showing dew points in the teens throughout the area on Monday afternoon.

HRRR model showing dew points in the teens throughout the area on Monday afternoon. Courtesy Weatherbell.

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Forecast: Pleasant, crisp weekend

Another cold morning throughout the area on Saturday began what will turn out to be a pleasant — albeit cool — weekend. The cold Canadian airmass which settled into the area a few days ago has since modified a bit, but remains stout. Temperatures plummeted for the third straight night into the 20’s and 30’s across the interior, and upper 30’s to lower 40’s in urban areas. Clear skies and light winds made for favorable radiational cooling conditions. Saturday looks to feature pleasant weather, despite a noticeable wind shift from west-northwest to southwest. Winds could be a bit gustier than the past few days by afternoon.

NAM model, forecasting high temperatures in the middle 50's (cooler inland) on Saturday afternoon.

NAM model, forecasting high temperatures in the middle 50’s (cooler inland) on Saturday afternoon.

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