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Public Analysis: More Dreary Weather Likely Thursday, Improvements This Weekend?

May 22, 2017/by Steven Copertino

Good Evening!

Most of the area saw a rather damp and dreary start to the work week today as areas of moderate to heavy rainfall moved over portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. This is due in part to a large upper level system over the central part of the country that will be gradually strengthening and progressing eastward over the rest of the week. This should allow for more damp and unsettled conditions down the line, especially on Thursday and Friday. A break from this pattern may be possible by the time we reach the Memorial Day Weekend, but this will all depend on the evolution of the previous systems this week.

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Today Into Tonight

Most of the tri-state area and portions of southern Pennsylvania saw a rather damp and cool day today with highs only reaching into the mid 50’s to lower 60’s. Though much of the area saw rain today, the heaviest bulk of the rain was concentrated to portions of central and southern New Jersey, where localized amounts over 2″ were seen. Further north totals were more in the trace to half-an-inch mark, especially in northwestern New Jersey, southern New York, as well as Connecticut. The rain has begun to pull away from the area, with only coastal sections of New Jersey and Long Island still stuck under steadier showers. Drizzle is likely to last for some locations until after dark, but overall conditions should begin to improve despite mostly cloudy skies. Some clearing may take place towards the late evening hours, or early tomorrow morning, but the cloud cover should be able to hold overnight lows into the lower to middle 50’s for much of the area, including the coast.

A cold front will pass through the area later this evening and usher in a much drier, but also temporary air-mass from the north and west that will work to end any lingering showers that may exist over the area. An area of weak high pressure just north of the region in addition to the introduction of drier air will decrease cloud cover tomorrow afternoon. A weak wave of low pressure will develop along the cold front that passed over our area and this low pressure will begin to move northeastward by later tomorrow afternoon.

Most of this afternoons model guidance keeps this small area of low pressure to the south and east of the area, but there is the possibility that at the very least this low will lead to an increase in cloudiness, but some rain showers are possible along the coastal sections of New Jersey and Long Island. Highs tomorrow will be just slightly warmer than today as highs are able to reach into the upper 60’s and lower 70’s across the area, and some locations may see slightly warmer highs if they are able to experience prolonged periods of clearing. These highs will be slightly below-normal over much of the region, with departures around 5 degrees below-average. With increased cloudiness and windier conditions possible, lows tomorrow evening will likely remain in the middle to upper 50’s, with the possibility of isolated locations holding in the low 60’s.

Latest regional radar data, stations plots, visible satellite imagery , and temperature plots as of this evening showing cloudy, cool, and damp conditions persisting over portions of the area (Courtesy of College of DuPage)

Wednesday and Thursday

Some light rain showers may linger along the coast on Wednesday morning, but as the weak area of low pressure begins to pull away, any potential impacts will begin to diminish. This will lead to improving skies during the afternoon hours with peaks of sunshine, allowing highs to reach into the upper 60’s to middle 70’s over the entire area.

The large upper level low that we have been talking about for over a week now will likely be rotating into the Great Lakes region and portions of the Northeast by late Wednesday evening or very early Thursday morning. As this large system begins to lumber towards us, it will drag up an impressive amount of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and southwestern Atlantic and begin to transport it northward towards our area. Once this upper level system begins to mature and strengthen, it will spawn a primary area of low pressure over the Appalachian mountains, and potentially another low that may develop just off the Mid-Atlantic coast.

There are some uncertainties regarding this system, but steady, heavier rain is likely during the day on Thursday, especially if the secondary low develops off the coast. However, if the system turns out to mature quicker and becomes more disorganized once it reaches our area, then the rain may be more sporadic and in the form of convection, but will still have the chance to produce some heavy rain.

This afternoons American model showing very impressive upper level jet structure that looks to be quite favorable for heavy rainfall over portions of our area on Thursday (Valid 8am Thursday)

Friday and Beyond

This area of low pressure looks to begin to fill-in and stall somewhere over the Northeast on Friday morning due to the high-latitude blocking that has persisted near the Canadian Maritime region and portions of Greenland. This should allow cloudy conditions, cooler temperatures, and the threat of showers to last throughout the rest of the day as the low lingers around the region during the day.

Some improving weather looks likely for the start of the first big holiday weekend of the Summer, at least on Saturday and no washouts are anticipated each day. So don’t cancel or change any outdoor plans yet!

However, there may be some left over blocking and some upper level ridging over the West Coast, which may continue to support a somewhat unsettled and potentially active weather pattern into this weekend. At this time, model guidance is beginning to suggest that another storm system tracking northwest of region, that could bring some showers to the region, sometime on Sunday or on Memorial Day. But more forecast details will likely be fined tuned throughout the week.

This afternoons American model showing showing yet another potential system working its way down from Canada around the Memorial Day time frame

Stay tuned for another for more updates, with discussion on later this week and Memorial Day Weekend!

For more information and posts like this one, make sure you sign up for Zone Forecasts — where multiple detailed articles, videos, and interactives are posted each day. Also, come interact with our staff and many other weather enthusiasts at 33andrain.com!

Have a great evening!

Steve Copertino

Public Analysis: Calm and Cool Weekend, Turning Unsettled Next Week

May 19, 2017/by Steven Copertino

Good afternoon and Happy Friday!

Today has been yest another hot and relatively muggy day in a strong of abnormally warm, summer-like heat. This heats time is very limited as a cold front is set to move through the region, leaving much cooler and stable conditions for the upcoming weekend. As discussed over the past week or so, high-latitude blocking over Greenland and Atlantic Canada will set the stage for a large upper level trough to set up over the eastern two-thirds of the country. This trough will likely bring a few shots at some heavy precipitation, potentially lasting through much of the work week as we draw closer to the Holiday Weekend!

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Today and This Evening

This afternoon we saw temperatures shoot back up into the upper 80’s and lows 90’s across the entire region, with some stations like La Guardia Airport and Caldwell, New Jersey seeing highs shoot into the mid 90’s (95F)! Despite the clear skies and slight breeze today has also felt relatively muggy as dew-points rose into the lower to mid 60’s. This muggy air-mass has also allowed instability to build over much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states, and combined with some modest wind-shear, has allowed some very isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop across portions of New Jersey and Southeastern Pennsylvania. Due to the fact that the best instability and wind-shear are disjointed from each other, the prospects of widespread, organized thunderstorms is quite low. However, very isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible, especially over southern New Jersey and Southeastern Pennsylvania. The main threat from these showers and storms will be gusty winds of around 40-50 mph, however small hail and frequent lightning may be possible with some of the stronger storms.

As we head into this evening, a cold front located over southern New England and central New York state will continue to sag south and overspread the region late tonight and into very early tomorrow morning. The flow behind the front will begin to change from very warm southerly winds, to much cooler northerly winds from Canada. These will bring lows down into the 50’s for much of the area, which will be quite the departure from what we have seen over the past few days.

Latest visible satellite imagery, station observations, and regional radar mosaic over the area, showing yet another warm and muggy afternoon. (Courtesy of College of DuPage)

This Weekend

As we start up the weekend tomorrow morning, we should see some relatively cloudy skies behind the cold front as an area of mid-level moisture works in over cool easterly winds coming off of the Atlantic which should produce areas of overcast and scattered clouds throughout most of the day. Temperatures should be relatively cool with highs in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s, which will be 20-25 degrees cooler than the past three days for much of the area. In addition to these cooler conditions, the Canadian/Maritime airmass will limit any chance for measurable precipitation throughout the day. As we head into tomorrow evening, an area of high pressure will be moving to our north and will work to reinforce the maritime airmass over our area. This will allow temperatures to drop into the upper 40’s and lower 50’s across much of the area, with partly cloudy conditions remaining.

We should see more clouds on Sunday as the continued maritime airmass and weak mid-level moisture hold over the area. Temperatures should be in the upper 60 to lower 70 range once again, but these highs should be quite variable as any areas that see prolonged peaks of sun may raise above the lower 70’s, while areas closer to the coast that may see prolonged cloudiness and southeasterly winds could wind up staying in the middle 60’s. Moisture will begin to increase later Sunday as the area of high pressure begins to shift off of the New England coast and as an area of low pressure moves through the Great Lakes region. This area of low pressure will drive a warm front through the Mid-Atlantic region, just south of our area. As time progresses, cloudiness will be on the rise and will likely become overcast towards the end of the evening as winds shift from easterly, to southerly once again. This afternoons model guidance was not in agreement on the exact timing, but the aforementioned cold front will likely not be able to progress east enough to produce widespread showers by Sunday evening. Overnight lows should remain quite moderate, with temperatures likely staying in the low 60’s to upper 50’s for most of the area.

This afternoons European model showing moisture beginning to build to the south of the region as a cold front associated with an area of low pressure in the Great Lakes begins to trudge eastward (Courtesy of AccuweatherPro)

Next Week

This afternoons model guidance did differ on the exact timing and placement of the cold front by Monday morning, but indications are that it should be located over eastern Pennsylvania by the morning commute. With moisture surging up to the east of the front, substantial cloudiness is likely to be present over the region, but depending on just where the warm front is located, some isolated peaks of sun will be possible. High temperatures on Monday will be very dependent on where the warm front is located as this will dictate where partial sunshine will be possible. By late morning, the actual cold front will likely move through the region and will likely have the potential to bring some showers and thunderstorms over the region. A strong southerly jet will continue to feed moisture north over the area for six hours or so and there will be the potential for some heavy rainfall with training storms. Although it doesn’t seem overwhelmingly likely, there may be the potential for some localized flooding, so make sure to stay tuned for further updates!

Tuesday will likely be a calm and cooler day as another storm begins to gather to our south with more possible moderate to heavy rainfall for the area on Wednesday. This will continue to be the theme for the week as a large upper level trough will be cemented over the central and eastern states due to another period of prolonged high latitude blocking that will allow multiple systems to slow down and congeal together to our south. While it is possible that this trough produces multiple rain threats over the next week, there is also the potential that we return to another period of below-normal temperatures coming down from Canada. Though it’s around ten days out as of today, there are some indications that this period of cooler and unsettled weather may last into the Memorial Day weekend. Stay tuned for the numerous upcoming rain threat as well as details on the upcoming Holiday Weekend!

This afternoons European model showing a very large and very anomalous upper level trough parked over the Ohio Valley and Eastern US that has the potential to bring multiple shots at heavy rain and below-normal temperatures (Courtesy of Accuweather Pro)

or more information and posts like this one, make sure you sign up for Zone Forecasts — where multiple detailed articles, videos, and interactives are posted each day. Also, come interact with our staff and many other weather enthusiasts at 33andrain.com!

Have a great weekend!

Steve Copertino

5/8 AM Zones Update: Cool Weather Week, Potential Weekend Coastal Storm

May 8, 2017/by Miguel Pierre

Happy Monday! It’s been chilly with some sunshine has been this morning. But an large, anomalous cold upper-level low continues to linger over the northeast today. This will cause the atmosphere to become more unstable, with more daytime heating. So more clouds will likely increase again this afternoon, with some isolated or widely scattered showers around. These should be mostly on light side however, with very limited lift and moisture overall. Temperatures will be cooler than normal today with highs in mid-upper 50s to around 60 in most spots.

Public Analysis: Heavy Rains Exit Today, Unsettled and Cooler Next Week

May 5, 2017/by Steven Copertino

Good afternoon and Happy Friday!

The large area of low pressure that we have been talking about for over a week now is finally making is way through the Northeast, and is certainly making its presence known. As of 2pm, most of the region has seen anywhere from 1-3.5″ of rain over the past 6 hours or so. All of this heavy rain in such a short period of time has lead to street flooding to be quite common in areas with poor drainage that also saw some of the heavier 2.5-3.5″ amounts. Flash flood warnings are currently out for portions of central NJ, Northeast NJ, Long Island, and southern Connecticut. While street flooding will be possible across portions of northeast New Jersey, Long Island, and Connecticut due to training of very heavy pockets of rain, more significant creek, river flooding is not expected at this time-though a few isolated cases may be possible as totals may approach 4″ in some isolated locations later this afternoon.

Please pay close attention to you local National Weather Service office for any information on Flash Flood Warnings or statements over the next few hours. Additionally, exercise caution when driving through heavy downpours and if you do encounter flooding of roadways-DO NOT attempt to cross that area of water no matter how deep you think it may be. We have seen upwards of 10 reports already of people trapped in vehicles, which required rescuing! Turn around and don’t drown!

As we work our way through the rest of the afternoon, dry air will begin to work its way in from the southwest and will work to effectively shut down the heavy rains. Mostly cloudy conditions are expected the rest of the afternoon as the rain tapers off from west to east by around 3-4pm. Temperatures may be able to rebound slightly into the low to mid 60’s across the area as a warm front begins to work its way up from the south just behind the bulk of the rains. As this warm front continues to move north through this evening, some more shower will be possible over the region, but heavy rainfall with these showers appears unlikely as the atmosphere will contain significantly less water vapor than it did this afternoon. Temperatures this evening will remain quite warm as the area will be within the warm sector of the low pressure area moving through Pennsylvania.

Latest regional radar mosaic, surface temperatures, visible satellite imagery , and NWS Flood Warnings (in green) showing the heavy rains finally pushing out of the area (Courtesy of GREarth)

Saturday and Sunday

The unsettled pattern will continue through the evening hours and into tomorrow as the negative NAO block helps the storm’s remnants stall out and decay over our area for at least the rest of the weekend. Tomorrow should start off relatively warm underneath partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds as the warm front continues to move north of our area. Depending on how much clearing we see tomorrow, some areas could reach highs into the middle to upper 60’s by late afternoon, while the rest of the region sees highs generally in the low to mid 60’s. Some residual energy associated with a cold front will likely move through the area late tomorrow afternoon or early evening, and bring the potential for some more showers and even an isolated thunderstorm depending on whether or not the area sees enough clearing earlier in the day to support some buildup of instability.

Cool and drier air will funnel in behind the cold front early Sunday morning, so any remaining showers and thunderstorms will likely taper off from west to east once again. As we get to daybreak on Sunday, another cold front will be working its way east, so expect some broken clouds to start off the day, but cloudiness should gradually increase as a the cold-core of the upper level low that will have stalled over the region begins to sink to the south and towards our area. This pocket of colder upper level temperatures will harbor a more unstable environment, so some showers will be possible during the afternoon. With the cooler air being reinforced by two cold front on Sunday and cloudier weather likely, highs should remain in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s during the day.

This afternoons high resolution NAM model, showing unstable conditions underneath with rain/snow showers possible for locations to the North and West (Valid 8pm Sunday)

Extended Range

The latest computer model guidance consisting of the American model, the Canadian model, and the European model, all show the negative NAO continuing into next week and even strengthen the block while bringing it back further west. This will keep a large upper-level low trapped over the Northeast, which will ensure that cooler weather stays locked in place. This large upper level low locked in over the region will also be capable of swinging multiple disturbances around the base of the low, and possibly back into our area.

For the most part, each day early next week should be relatively similar, with early morning sunshine giving way to cloudier conditions with the threat of some showers by later afternoon and evening. Given the cooler temperatures in the upper levels of the atmosphere, some ice pellets or event wet snowflakes may be possible for locations to the north and west. Otherwise, each day is mainly looking at highs in the mid 50’s to lower 60’s for highs, with lows ranging from the low 40’s to 30’s possible for inland locations.

No real significant precipitation events are expected in the medium range, however we are beginning to watch the period around Mother’s Day for a potential coastal system. The time to really watch for larger storms or heavier precipitation events in this type of pattern is typically when the NAO block begins to weaken and move away. At this time, we don’t really see the possibility of this happening until around late May. Stay tuned for further updates on the unusually cool pattern over the foreseeable future!

This afternoons European model showing below-normal temperatures over the next week for the Northeast US, courtesy of a large upper-level low parked over the region (Image Credit: Ryan Maue)

Have a great weekend!

Steve Copertino

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