Posts

Miguel Pierre

Increasing signals for a January pattern change

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Meteorological winter began about three weeks ago. Over the next 10 days, it appears the pattern will be un-supportive of winter weather — and may further support record breaking warmth. But some changes maybe underway for the New Year. Our long range outlook will discuss the meteorological pattern for the upcoming 30 to 45 days. With an in depth look into meteorological patterns and the developing global circulations, we’ll explain the processes occurring that will drive our weather pattern for late this month and January.

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Miguel Pierre

Here’s Why the Warmth This December Has Been Historic

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With the release of our Winter Forecast came the news that December was likely to average above normal in terms of temperature. Historically, almost all Strong El Nino events featured warmer than normal December’s in the Eastern US. The warmth this December, however, has been far more exceptional than anticipated. Temperatures have been well above average for almost all of the month. Multiple record highs have been broken in New Jersey and New York’s climate reporting stations. And, even still, a more anomalous warm surge is expected during the period of time near Christmas through New Years.

Currently, temperatures are running around 10 degrees above average. At this rate, extrapolating forward, December could average more than 5 degrees above normal. The meteorological reasoning behind this exceptional event features a juxtaposition of some very anomalous features:

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John Homenuk

Record breaking warmth will return Christmas week

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I’m dreaming of a…Green Christmas? While there will certainly be no shortage of “White Christmas” puns in the weather headlines over the next week, the real story will be in the meteorological pattern evolving. The warmth we experienced over the past few days was impressive, and the warmth being advertised on medium range forecast models for the period around Christmas is arguably more impressive. Owing to a large trough in the West and Southwest United States, a large ridge is expected to build over the East Coast, pumping in much warmer than normal air once again next week.

Without any cold air source, or high latitude blocking, mild Pacific air can enter the region unabated. This is the same reason that record high temperatures were broken during the tail end of last week and this past weekend — southerly winds brought in mid and low level atmospheric temperatures that were highly anomalous. And it is likely the same reason that records will be broken in the period of time around Christmas.

Here’s how the pattern will shake down, and why:

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John Homenuk

Dreaming of a White Christmas? Dream On

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It has been a meteorological winter of mud, rain, and warmth.

Two full weeks in to the meteorological winter season, which begins December 1st and ends March 1st, no winter weather of significance has impacted our area. That, in itself, isn’t all that notable. December of 2014 also featured above normal temperatures and very little winter weather. 2015, however, has been much more notable on almost all facets — with record shattering warm temperatures and prolonged above normal temperature departures.

On Saturday and Sunday of this past weekend, daily high temperature records were broken at almost all of the NYC 5-Boro’s weather reporting stations. New York City (Central Park) broke their daily high temperature record on Sunday before the clock even reached 10:30am. Central and Southern New Jersey? Forget it: Temperatures there soared into the lower 70’s, breaking records as well.

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