Posts

John Homenuk

How long will Winter’s hiatus last? Look to the Pacific

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Before the warmth has even arrived, signals of a changing weather pattern have begun once again. This is, honestly, par for the course in the hemispheric pattern that we have been locked into over the past several months. The progressive nature of the pattern itself has not allowed any particular regime to become stagnant. In other words, the pattern is changing quite consistently, and no overly cold or overly warm regime has become established locally.

While this idea fits within our overall winter forecast, there is something to be said for emerging signals of a return to a colder, more active pattern before a warmer pattern has already begun. Lets not get confused, though — the warmer than normal pattern is still on the way. In fact, temperatures are likely to average above seasonal normals in the Northeast US for quite some time from late this week through Christmas and into the first week of January.

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John Homenuk

Winter hiatus expected to close out December

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After a two week period featuring a polar vortex intrusion, colder than normal temperatures, and frequent winter weather opportunities (especially in the interior) the pattern this week will be one of transition. The hemispheric pattern is undergoing some fairly significant changes, which are working to take then cold air back to its source region by late this week, over the arctic and north pole.

Yes, the arc is swinging back the other way, as the same cold air which was disrupted and pushed southward into the Northern 1/3 of the United States is retreating fairly dramatically. In the stratosphere, the polar vortex is tightening and strengthening over the North Pole, a dramatic difference from the vortex we observed earlier in the season which was stretched, nearly split, and elongated.

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John Homenuk

Southeast ridge will flex its muscles late month

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All things considered, after much conversation and discussion, meteorological winter came in cold and active during the month of December. Multiple shots of arctic air and several winter weather events, particularly in the interior, have given us a December much different than the past few years, when warm air dominated the Eastern United States’ weather pattern. That very same cold and active pattern looks likely to take a hiatus over the next few weeks.

The hemispheric pattern is undergoing changes once again — this time, pulling back the reigns on an active, amplified pattern which saw polar air drop into New England last week. This time, the stratospheric polar vortex will tighten and strengthen near the North Pole, pulling back much of the arctic air and reforming the vortex near its usual whereabouts. For much of the Northeast US, this means that arctic air will gradually become less available over the next two weeks.

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John Homenuk

Impactful winter storm expected Saturday AM

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Colder trends, discussed at length over the past few days, have come into better focus over the past 12 to 24 hours, with mesoscale forecast models and short term weather observations lining up with those ideas. The result will be an impactful winter storm throughout much of the area — save for Southern New Jersey and some coastal locations — with the focus on interior Northern New Jersey, Southeast New York and Connecticut.

As always, our latest products are available and break down the threat for snow, freezing rain, and sleet throughout the area. We invite you to watch our latest Premium Discussion video, which includes a narrative of images and ideas with details of how we compiled our forecast.

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