Posts

John Homenuk

Threat Analysis: Weekend winter storm

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A well discussed storm system — with winter weather potential — is heading towards the Northeast US this weekend, in the wake of a brutally cold airmass associated with the polar vortex in the troposphere. This storm, however, will come with a vast amount of warm air advection — which occurs when warm air moves in multiple levels of the atmosphere. In this case, southwesterly winds are driving the storm system towards the Northeast as the polar vortex departs.

The resulting storm system will be one of transition, with a cold airmass in place to start, followed by a moist and warm airmass as the storm begins its departure. The transition itself will occur with quite a bit of complexity, and interior locations are likely to see a impactful winter storm on Saturday, particularly in the morning hours. Nearer to the coast, a change to rain should occur relatively quickly, alleviating widespread impacts.

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John Homenuk

Weekend storm system will start wintry in Northeast

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An arctic airmass will drive southeastward from Canada and into the Northeast United States late this week, bringing with it the coldest temperatures in quite some time. In fact, the arctic airmass is part of the polar vortex — yes that one which we discuss all too often — a piece of which is dropping southward into New England. This isn’t necessarily unusual in winter, but it certainly is this time of year — some of the temperatures being modeled at 850mb (5000 feet) would challenge record lows for this time of year.

Nevertheless — the polar vortex swinging through will, after it brings some brutally cold air, begin a quick departure. This is occurring mainly due to a lack of high latitude blocking. In other words, there is no feature to “keep” the polar vortex from shifting away, and back to where it typically stays. There was an impetus to bring it here, the Alaskan ridge which we discussed at length the past several weeks.

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John Homenuk

Arctic air, storminess, and pattern longevity

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Synopsis: Arctic air drops into the Northeast US late this week, with temperatures 20 to 30 degrees below normal. A storm pattern continues with another winter storm expected this weekend. The longevity of this cold comes into question as Christmas week approaches with the return of a Southeast Ridge.

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Lets face it — there has been a ton of conversation in regards to this colder pattern over the past few weeks. Our team of forecasters has been talking about it for more than a few weeks now –and it is finally arriving this week. A piece of the polar vortex (yes, the one you hear about a lot) will drop southward into Canada and eventually through parts of the Northeast states late this week. This will lead to temperatures dropping well below normal over a large part of the region.

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John Homenuk

Arctic air arrives, multiple wintry chances late week

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Lets face it, the term “Polar Vortex” has become overused and oversaturated over the past few years. This time, however, it is certainly applicable: A piece of the polar vortex will be swinging southwards this week through New England, bringing with it extremely cold temperatures and an arctic airmass which is decidedly unusual for this time of year.

We spoke a few weeks ago about how the intrusion of this type of air was likely, due to the presence of a large ridge building from Alaska to the North Pole. The time has finally come, and the airmass over the Northeast US by the end of this week will feature temperatures 20 to 30 degrees below normal averages for this time of year.

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