Posts

John Homenuk

Another interior snow event likely Tuesday evening

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Light snow fell throughout much of the interior on Monday morning, with higher elevations in Northwest New Jersey and Southeast New York reporting nearly 2″ of snow as of 9:00am.While this lighter and weaker disturbance moves away later on Monday, a second and more notable disturbance will be approaching from the southwest. Increasing moisture and lift, as well as warm air advection, will approach the area on Tuesday — allowing most areas near the coast and even in the suburbs to warm up enough to support rain.

But farther inland, in the higher elevations and mountains of Northwest New Jersey and Southeast New York, the atmosphere will remain just cold enough as this moisture and lift approaches. In fact, the dynamics of the storm system itself will help to cool the atmosphere in an aptly-named process called “Dynamic Cooling”. Forecast models are in good agreement that this moisture will overrun cold air — allowing snow to fall later Tuesday afternoon and evening into early Wednesday morning before an eventual changeover to rain.

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John Homenuk

Another complex storm system possible next week

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On the heels of a large, complex storm system which impacted a large portion of the United States over the past several days, forecast models have continued to hint at the development of another system in 5 to 7 days time. Instead of being just long range model fodder, the hemispheric pattern progression suggests that this storm threat has some legitimacy, with the potential for a moderate to high precipitation event across the Eastern United States once again during the middle part of next week.

Much of the storm threat stems from the development of a cut-off low, or a trough and low pressure system cut-off from the jet stream, in the Southwestern United States later this week and weekend. This cut-off low looks likely to meander in that area for a period of time before ejecting east/northeastwards. The orientation of the upper level jet stream and height pattern suggests that the storm will eject from the Texarkana area towards the Mississippi and Ohio River Valley’s by the early and middle part of next week.

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John Homenuk

Multiple rounds of heavy rain likely in the Northeast this week

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An expansive and multi-faceted storm system will develop throughout the United States during the early and middle part of the upcoming week. Multiple pieces of energy will move from the Plains through the Mississippi and Ohio Valley’s and eventually towards the Northeast — each disturbance aiding in the development of heavy rain over a relatively large area. While wintry precipitation and severe weather are both possible in the Central United States, the main focus in the Northeast will be periods of heavy rain — much needed in many areas.

While uncertainty does exist given the multiple disturbances and intricate interactions between fronts, confidence has increased in the heavy rain threat over the past 24 to 48 hours. Forecast model and ensemble guidance has come into much better agreement on the storms overall evolution, with two separate rounds of rainfall likely in the Northeast US from Tuesday through Thursday.

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John Homenuk

Pattern in transition as December quickly approaches

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Over the past few weeks, much has been made in regards to a changing hemispheric pattern. Global circulations are in flux, and a much warmer than normal pattern has in fact changed across the Continental United States. However, the changes have been slightly less stout and slightly delayed when compared with initial ideas, and the atmospheric pattern has been left in an overall flux as we head towards December.

The Thanksgiving holiday is often an important time-frame in meteorology as one looks ahead to the upcoming winter. Gone are the days of wild speculation and assumption when it comes to the winter ahead. December is just a week away — and the ideas formulated regarding the pattern as we move into winters first month are beginning to obtain more weight. Some ideas are clearly losing steam, while others garner more attention.

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