Posts

John Homenuk

Here’s why a cold, wintry pattern will continue

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We know, it’s been relentless. But we warned you of this. The past two to four weeks have featured a near constant parade of storm systems with winter weather, as well as bitter cold both during the systems and surrounding them. The pattern has been “locked and loaded” as meteorologists like to say. The atmosphere has settled into a routine, and it’s one that continues to dislodge arctic air farther south than usual while maintaining an active jet stream of energy. This has resulted in countless chances for snow with a train of storm systems moving across the country into very cold air. In terms of snowfall, New England has benefited the most — many weather stations are running toward all time snowfall records.

A breakdown and overview of the hemispheric setup offers us some clues as to why this pattern has become so relentless, and why it’s likely to continue for at least another 7 to 10 days before any hint of moderation. As meteorologists, long term forecasting is rarely as straightforward as “colder than normal with the potential for snow”. But the next 7-10 days offer just that.

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John Homenuk

Another winter weather event possible Tuesday

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In what now seems to be a never-ending parade of winter weather, forecast models have come into agreement on the potential for another winter weather event on this coming Tuesday. Here’s the change-up with this one: The wintry weather seems more likely to stay south of New York as opposed to north.

A mid level shortwave trough will eject northeastward from the South-Central United States early this week, and in doing so will spawn the development of a surface low over the Mississippi Valley. This surface low will shift northeast with time, toward the Mid Atlantic states on Monday and Tuesday. While the mid level energy de-amplifies a bit, the storm system will move toward the coast.

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John Homenuk

We’re shipping up to…Provincetown

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Call us crazy. But we’re heading up to Provincetown, the northern tip of Cape Cod, for the upcoming Nor’Easter this weekend into Presidents Day. And while this may seem somewhat insane to you given the degree of snowfall in New England and the predicted power of this Nor’Easter, look on the bright side: You’ll get to experience the wrath of the Nor’Easter through our website. For us, this is likely to be the thrill of a lifetime. Don’t worry — we’re still fully staffed for the storm in New Jersey, New York City, and Long Island.

Forecast models are in good agreement on the track of the Nor’Easter — which will move from the Northeast States to a position off the coast of New Jersey and eventually southeast of Cape Cod and into the Gulf of Maine. Meanwhile, a mid level center will shift south of Long Island and Southeast of Cape Cod, with impressive mid and upper level dynamics driving the potential for heavy precipitation. Snow is expected to develop later Saturday and continue into Sunday, when it will be heavy at times.

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John Homenuk

Snow, cold, strong winds possible this weekend

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Forecast models have come into much better agreement on the eventual track and intensity of a powerful storm system, which will develop from the Great Lakes off the Northeast Coast on Sunday. The track of the storm is quite unusual, with the surface low tracking from Southeast Canada to a position off the New Jersey Coast and eventually into the Gulf of Maine. A powerhouse mid and upper level low will amplify eastward from the Great Lakes, underneath Long Island, and eventually to a position just south and east of Cape Cod, aiding the strengthen an already powerful storm system.

The result will be the potential for snow from Sunday into Monday, with moderate snowfall accumulations and the potential for higher amounts farther east. But in addition to the snow will come strong, damaging wind potential as the system deepens offshore. Finally, behind the storm, a polar airmass will move southward — possibly the coldest in many years — and the coldest air of the season will sink into the area on Monday when temperatures may struggle to get out of the single digits.

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