Posts

John Homenuk

Multiple winter weather threats to begin February

/by

On the heels of two (arguably three) major winter weather events in the Northeast United States, many are wondering just when the pattern will slow down. The answer: Not soon. Medium and long range forecast models are in good agreement that  an active pattern will continue in the foreseeable future as the Pacific Jet continues to send multiple disturbances into the United States. Fluctuating amplitude of both a ridge on the West Coast and high latitude blocking over the Arctic regions will keep things from getting downright snowy and cold for a prolonged period, but the potential for winter weather events for at least the first few weeks of February looks to be heightened.

The first threat will come as early as the tail end of this week — small, but nonetheless noteworthy as it comes on the heels of an arctic front. Short term forecast models are in agreement that a wave of low pressure will develop along this frontal boundary on Thursday, with moisture streaming north/northeastward along it. The best support for heavy precipitation will remain well offshore. But enough moisture looks to stream along the front within a coupled jet structure aloft to allow for steady precipitation to push eastward from Pennsylvania through New England and the Northern Mid Atlantic.

Read more

John Homenuk

Why Monday’s storm will disappoint NYC snow lovers

/by

Much has been made over the past few days about a potential winter weather event in New York City on Monday morning. Vindication, they’ve called it. After the Blizzard of 2015 barely skirted our area and brought historic snowfall to New England, this Monday’s event was seen by snow lovers as the makeup-call to our blown chance last week. But, we say, not so fast. Despite what forecast models have hinted at over the past few days, there are meteorological elements to this storm system which not only argue against significant snowfall in New York City — but in fact, argue for a few inches of snow followed by sleet and then plain rain. A snow lovers nightmare.

For those who aren’t enamored by snowfall in New York, this article will serve as a bit of detail and an opportunity for understanding some atmospheric processes which are going to be occurring on Sunday Night into Monday Morning. There is a method to the madness of meteorologists, despite what the public opinion may have been on Tuesday morning when most woke up to much less snow than they anticipated.

Read more