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5.16 Midday Zones Update: Low 90s Possible by Thursday, More High Latitude Blocking

Happy Tuesday! Get ready for more summery weather over next several days! For today, sunshine will continue into the early afternoon hours. Then more mid-high clouds may filter sunshine this afternoon, as some convective debris from the Great Lakes moves southeast into region. But there should be enough sunshine with west-southwest winds to help temperatures rise into upper 70s and 80 over most of the region. Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected tonight. Low temperatures overnight will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s, over most of region with a light southwest flow.

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The Importance of High Latitude Blocking in The Upcoming Winter

In our winter forecast, we discussed certain signals that supported high-latitude blocking developing for the middle and late periods of this upcoming winter. High-latitude blocking often comes with negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Artic Oscillation (AO), and/or the Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO). High-latitude blocking is one most important factors in any winter forecast, as it typically supports colder temperatures and larger snowstorms for the Northeast US. This is an even more important factor in during a strong El Nino winter, as the Pacific or Subtropical jet is generally more active and stronger.

Research from Al Marinaro (@wxmidwest ) brought to light a strong correlation between the sea-level pressures in North Pacific and the NAO modality, during +ENSO (El Nino) winters. North Pacific sea-level pressures less than 1013 mb had a -NAO value on average for the December, January, February, and March period (DJFM). Sea-level pressures above 1013 mb during the month of October had either a positive NAO value or very close to netrual in the following winter. An official pressure for North Pacific reading has not been released for October yet. However, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis tells us that sea-level pressures were on average around 1010 mb over the region 65N-30 & 160E-140W in the North Pacific. That would be well-below the 1013mb threshold for a -NAO DJFM.

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High latitude ridge could bring below normal temperatures

High latitude ridging has become a bit of a staple in meteorological terminology over the past several years. Much of this can be attributed to the fact that we’ve seen several record breaking episodes of it. Conversely, we’ve also seen periods which have lacked that blocking, leading to major forecast changes and dramatic pattern evolutions. High latitude blocking, or ridging, occurs when higher than normal heights build into the higher latitudes (here’s a not-so-fancy image of where the high latitudes are defined). This can occur at any time of year, but we’ve seen it in the Autumn and Winter more often over the past several seasons. High latitude ridging and blocking events can be of varying degrees, as well. Some of the less extreme examples, like this upcoming one, can produce mild pattern changes. Other more extreme examples, like the high latitude block that occurred prior to Hurricane Sandy and the Boxing Day Blizzard, can…well, you know.

Nevertheless, without getting overly technical, these high latitude blocks and ridges can “buckle” and slow down the mid and upper level atmospheric pattern. And while much also depends on what’s going on around these blocks, more often than not if they occur on the Atlantic side (Northwest Atlantic Ocean into Greenland), they result in cooler than normal air being displaced to the south of the ridge over Canada. This often leads to cooler than normal air in our region, and this upcoming event likely won’t be an exception to that rule.

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