High latitude blocking a key in the late February forecast
Over the past several days you have probably heard about a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event (SSW) — over, and over, and over again. With good reason, too – the event is important. We spoke about it several days back and will touch on it here again. Forecast models continue to suggest the development of a very impressive stratospheric warming event over the next few days, beginning in just 24-48 hours and continuing through next week. The stratospheric vortex itself will split in two, with the dominant sister vortex centering over Canada.
Warmer than normal temperatures and higher than normal heights will surge into the stratosphere near the North Pole and Arctic regions. Most notably, the stratosphere and troposphere are well coupled heading into the event, which means the warming in the stratosphere will have “maximum impacts” on the atmosphere as a whole – with the troposphere reacting to the warming event happening above rather quickly.