Posts

John Homenuk

Friday Overview: Heat, humidity, more thunderstorms expected

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The heat and humidity is back this morning, and it’s expected to stick around through the day. Temperatures will rise from the 70’s this morning into the 90’s once again early this afternoon. The combination of the heat and humidity will push heat index values into the middle 90’s once again throughout the area, despite temperatures remaining a bit cooler (as usual) near the shore.

The main story today will be the development of a seabreeze front, which is part of a larger “backdoor” cold front pushing toward our area from the Northeast. This boundary will serve as a convergence point for moisture, heat, and humidity — as well as atmospheric instability and lift for thunderstorms. An approaching disturbance in the atmosphere is likely to aid in storm development this afternoon and evening, some of which could be strong — especially over New Jersey. Some other highlights through the weekend:

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John Homenuk

Thursday Overview: Hot and humid, a few strong storms

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Hot and humid weather will continue today, with heat index values expected to again rise into the mid to upper 90’s by the late morning and afternoon hours. The temperatures will again be hot, but the bigger story by this afternoon and evening will be the dew points, which are expected to rise into the 70’s. The combination will lead to heat index values higher than yesterday. The air will feel quite oppressive as well, especially as the afternoon draws on into the evening.

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John Homenuk

Building ridge will bring heat, severe wx chances through July

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Within a pattern which has been well discussed for a week or more, changes are afoot during the middle to latter part of this week. The troughing and cooler air, which had become a mainstay over the Northeast US over the past several weeks, will be replaced by increased atmospheric ridging. Warmer air and heat, with temperatures over 90 F, is expected to push into the area by the middle part of this week, and last through the weekend.

This airmass will be marked by mid level temperatures warming up quite dramatically. Temperatures at the 850mb level, or 5000 feet above the ground, will warm to 20 C or above – often times the “demarcation line” for a heatwave in this part of the country. On both Wednesday and Thursday, 850mb temperatures will approach or exceed this 20 C threshold over parts of the area, and not surprisingly forecast models have indicated temperatures in the mid 90’s on both days.

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John Homenuk

Major rains possible through Tuesday, may impact fireworks

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A well advertised frontal boundary, and associated low pressure system, are forecast to move toward the area from Monday Night into Tuesday — and it may impact fireworks displays. While forecast models have fluctuated a bit with the exact placement of the storm system, the overall signal for heavy rainfall potential has been quite strong. Over the past 24 hours, models have come into further focus in regards to the eventual evolution of the storm system in our area.

A large plume of moisture will move northward through the Southeast States, eventually meeting up with a very pronounced frontal boundary and temperature/pressure gradient from the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic states. Meanwhile, a disturbance moving along this gradient will provide ample lift for precipitation to develop. The juxtaposition of these features will lead to steady rainfall, spreading from the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic on Monday.

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