Posts

John Homenuk

Monday Overview: Hot again, strong storms possible late

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The heat is back on, and it’s showing no signs of letting up. After a hot day on Sunday, Monday looks likely to be several degrees warmer throughout much of the area. High temperatures will approach the middle and upper 90’s, especially away from the area coasts. Heat index values in the upper 90’s, occasionally near 100, will make it feel oppressive at times.

In addition to the heat, a threat of strong to severe thunderstorms exists during the late afternoon and evening. This will be especially true across western portions of the forecast area. The Storm Prediction Center has placed western parts of New Jersey and Southeast New York in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms on Monday afternoon and evening. Some highlights below:

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John Homenuk

Bouts of heat, multiple MCS threats to end July

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The hot weather is here — and as we have mentioned in our posts for the past week or so, it isn’t expected to go anywhere any time soon. While the pattern will remain somewhat transitional this weekend, a tremendous mid level ridge is forecast to build across the Central United States by the middle part of this upcoming week. This ridge will become the dominant feature in the jet stream and weather pattern throughout the Contiguous United States during this time frame.

The core of the ridge, and the center of the big-time heat, is likely to stay well to our west. The ridge center is expected to drift from the Mississippi River Valley westward toward the Plains states during the week ahead. However, the breadth of the ridge is likely to grow during this time frame, with rising mid level heights extending all the way to the Northeast United States.

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John Homenuk

Weekend Overview: Hot, unsettled pattern takes hold

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After strong and severe thunderstorms brought fairly widespread wind damage reports to the area on Thursday, many woke up expecting much cooler air this morning. They were wrong: Temperatures remained in the 70’s and even low 80’s in some spots overnight. Hot weather is again expected on Friday, with highs in the middle 90’s, and it may even be warmer than Thursday near the coast. The culprit? West offshore winds, keeping any seabreeze boundaries right near the coast.

The good news is that the ridiculous, nearly tropical airmass with dew points near 75 will be ushered out of the area by these westerly winds. Although high temperatures will reach into the 90’s, dew points closer to the middle 60’s are likely throughout the area, which will feel like a bit of a relief. A few scattered showers are possible Friday afternoon, but overall, calm and hot weather will be in control. The rest of the weekend looks likely to remain transitional and unsettled. We’ve got the highlights below:

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John Homenuk

Heat, storms increasingly likely the next two weeks

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A large and anomalous heat ridge is forecast by most mid-range operational and ensemble model guidance to build over the Central United States. The process will actually begin by early next week, as heights in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere rapidly increase over the Central United States. Troughing over the Northwest United States will act to enhance this ridging, with mid and upper level heights approaching anomalous levels by the middle to end of next week.

Medium range ensemble support, at this range, is actually quite remarkable. Both the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means (the averages of multiple-member ensemble runs) show a tremendous ridge over the Central US, pulsing and expanding northeastward toward the Great Lakes and Northeast. While the brunt of the unbearable heat will likely miss our area to the south and west, the heat will still be felt. More notably, however, is the fact that our area will likely lie along the periphery of this ridge, in the path of multiple atmospheric disturbances.

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