Posts

John Homenuk

Sunday Overview: Tropical rains, flooding likely again

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Tropical moisture and just enough lift combined to support the development of torrential rains on Saturday, with localized flash flooding reported both in New Jersey and throughout the Mid Atlantic. Much of the same is forecast on Sunday, with a warm front nearing the area during the afternoon. This may be particularly true across Northeastern New Jersey, where a convergence zone will allow for moisture to “pool” along a frontal zone.

This allows for a few things to occur, but most notably, it juxtaposes lift and moisture to develop torrential rains. With plenty of anomalous moisture still available throughout the area, the recipe could be there once again for flash flooding in localized areas. Upwards of 2″ of rainfall in relatively short periods of time could cause problems, especially in flood prone areas.

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John Homenuk

Analysis: Heavy rain, storm potential Friday morning

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A mid level atmospheric disturbance will approach the area from the southwest later Thursday Night into Friday morning, bringing with it plenty of tropical moisture and lift. As the disturbance shifts toward the Mid Atlantic states and eventually off the coast, a surface low pressure area will develop in the same adjacent areas. This will enhance lift in the atmosphere — allowing heavy rain to develop just to the north of the low pressure area.

Within an airmass characterized by precipitable water values over 2.50″, this lift will support the development of heavy, torrential rains from Thursday Night into Friday. Movement from southwest to northeast of heavy rain, and embedded thunderstorms, is anticipated. Exactly where the heaviest bands fall will depend on a few things; namely convection, and placement of the best mid level lift and vertical velocity.

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John Homenuk

Multiple rounds of strong storms possible this weekend

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A well advertised weather pattern, featuring a large ridge over the Central United States and building heat in the Northeast US, will come to fruition this week. Temperatures will increase fairly dramatically as the end of the week and weekend approaches, with high temperatures reaching into the middle to upper 90s from Friday through Sunday. In addition to the discussed heat has been a well advertised threat for strong and severe thunderstorms.

Along the top of the mentioned ridge will come several atmospheric disturbances, riding along the ridges periphery as the jet stream is shoved to the north with the ridges development. The positioning of the ridge over the Central US suggests these disturbances will slide from Southern Canada, through the Great Lakes, and into the Northeast states late this week and weekend.

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John Homenuk

Heat wave, severe storms highlight upcoming weekend

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Stock up on the sunscreen.

Forecast models are in good agreement that a large, anomalous ridge over the Central United States will build eastward toward the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states during the middle to latter part of this week. As it does so, very warm temperatures in the mid and low levels of the atmosphere will surge toward the area, and high temperatures at the surface will climb fairly rapidly as the weekend approaches — a heat wave.

By the weekend itself, high temperatures may approach or exceed 100 degrees in many locations, with a piece of the core of the aforementioned ridge settling overhead. West winds — even with a northwesterly component at times — will help to suppress any seabreeze or ocean influence, and keep the air extremely hot, and even dry for a day or two.

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