May 2014 Archives - Page 4 of 5 - New York Metro Weather

El Nino Update: Not a matter of if, but how strong

May 12, 2014/1 Comment/by Doug Simonian

As the Spring season moves along, signs begin to become more clear regarding the development of an El Nino. Although there has been relatively high confidence in the development of an El Nino for quite some time, there was still a small bit of doubt, as some expressed skepticism. However, over the last month or so, the atmosphere has undergone changes which should remove any seeds of doubt regarding whether an El Nino will be developing this Spring and Summer. The only doubts that exist now is the final strength of the event (El Nino events usually peak in the Autumn): high-end moderate/low-end strong, a strong event, or a super strong event. For more information regarding the formation of El Ninos and what they mean for our weather pattern, check out the article we published last month.

What has happened that makes us so confident? The easterly trade winds which usually keep warm water well to the west towards Indonesia have shifted to westerlies.

This animation shows the progression of the strength and direction of wind currents. Note how they started off blowing from east to west, but have dramatically shifted in the opposite direction. This is a strong indicator that an El Nino is coming. Click to animate.

This animation shows the progression of the strength and direction of wind currents. Note how they started off blowing from east to west (easterlies, blue arrows), but have dramatically shifted in the opposite direction (westerlies, red arrows). This is a strong indicator that an El Nino is coming. Click to animate.

This means that the base state of the atmosphere which prevents El Nino events has completely changed to one that favors El Nino events. The typical climate pattern has easterly trade winds along the Equator, which blow warm water along the Equatorial Pacific to the west, towards Indonesia and Australia, leaving the rest of the Equatorial Pacific relatively chillier. Now that the surface currents have shifted to blowing from west to east, it becomes much easier for that same warm water from the west to move eastward throughout the rest of the Equatorial Pacific, leading to an El Nino.

Slow but persistent warmup the next several days

May 8, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

As a warm front struggles to move north of the area today, temperatures have struggled as well — staying generally stuck in the mid 50’s for the majority of the day through the early afternoon. Although some warmer temperatures are anticipated by later this afternoon, the general theme will continue to feature east/northeasterly winds off the ocean waters and cooler than normal temperatures with clouds. A warm front has established itself to our south and west, and while that is providing much of the Mid-Atlantic with warmth, it is leaving us in a damp, marine airmass.

This front will struggle northward over the next few days, but the good news is that forecast models agree it will eventually make it. Friday looks to feature conditions more similar to Thursday than the past several days of this week — although there won’t be as many clouds, temperatures won’t reach much past the 60’s. This will be especially true near the coast, as east/northeasterly winds again bring in cooler marine air.

Pleasant weather, warming trend expected this week

May 5, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

The return of high latitude blocking (or above normal height anomalies over the higher latitudes from Greenland into Canada and the North Atlantic) has slowed the progress of spring, or at least the warmth which typically comes with it over much of the Northeast United States. While much of the Western, Southern and Central United States have already experienced widespread warmth with several days over 80 degrees, persistent troughiness and meandering upper level lows have meant cooler than normal temperatures and frequent cold fronts in the Northeast. A change is in order during this week, but will occur over the span of a few days as a warm front slowly pushes northward.

Initial conditions on Monday will be pleasant, but again dry and breezy. The National Weather Service warns of enhanced fire danger once again. The low humidity values and stiff breeze will allow for rapid spread of any fire after ignition. As recently as last week, Red Flag Warnings were issued throughout the area and several brush fires spread rapidly in parts of New Jersey. Other than the fire danger, Monday looks quite pleasant with high temperatures well into the 60’s and plenty of sun — with no chance of showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon as was the case this weekend.

Pleasant weather in control this weekend

May 2, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

After a weeks worth of unsettled weather, including prolific rains which ended as the 10th wettest day ever at New York City, the upcoming stretch of more pleasant weather will certainly be welcomed with open arms. Despite an elongating upper level low to our north, Friday will be the start of the generally pleasant stretch of weather. Behind a cold front, dry westerly winds will alleviate any precipitation concerns. High temperatures will still be able to rebound into the upper 60s — making for a pleasant day with a mix of clouds and sun.

The upcoming weekend days look to feature a very similar mix of sun and clouds. The upper level energy, elongated and meandering to our north, will allow for the chances of showers and possibly a rumble of thunder during the afternoon on Saturday and Sunday. But these showers and storms won’t be “organized” per se, and will weaken with the loss of daytime heating. High temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s will feel refreshingly good, so the showers shouldn’t be too much of a nuisance.

Visible satellite imagery showing partly cloudy skies in the area Friday morning.

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