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Clear and cool start to the week, attention turns to Friday

December 17, 2018/0 Comments/by Steven Copertino

Temperatures were be quite cold to start the day across the vast majority of the Northeast – and they still are! Dry air has moved in to the region from Canada as well. This will keep any clouds at bay, allowing for a mostly sunny day, with temperatures in the lower to middle 30’s for much of the area, with the usual colder readings off to the north and west. A weak area of high pressure will gradually build-in during the course of the afternoon/evening hours which will continue the cool and clear conditions into the overnight hours. With dry air in place, a building high pressure system, and light winds, radiational cooling will be near-ideal tonight. As a result, low temperatures will once again be quite cold area-wide. Reading should easily drop down into the lower to middle 20’s over the immediate metro area, with teens possible just off to the north and west.

Dreary and complex weekend ahead

December 14, 2018/0 Comments/by Steven Copertino

Good evening!

After the very light rain/snow mix yesterday, we’re now firmly entrenched within a much more mild and moist airmass thanks to the large upper-level system over the Southeastern US that we have been talking about since last week. This system has been quite challenging to nail down over the past few days, as key features that will determine the overall impacts from this system are constantly changing.

So what exactly has changed?

Well, the first major change that we’ve seen is that the system as a whole is quite a bit more disorganized than what the models originally projected, and this has led to the precipitation over the Southeast to also become quite disorganized and lackluster in nature. Another major change that we’ve seen is that a shortwave trough currently over eastern Canada has trended stronger and further south over the past couple of days, which is keeping the overall storm much further south than previously expected. Now if this sounds familiar to you, this is generally the same thing that happened with last weekends snowstorm that stayed well to the south of the Northeast but still managed to significantly impact portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern states.

With these two significant changes in mind, this means that the strong low-level jet that was supposed to overspread the Northeast will now be less impressive and much more suppressed to our south this evening and throughout the day on Saturday.

With the main mechanism for heavy rain potential now located our south, this evening and the majority of Saturday should really only be capable of light to locally moderate rain showers for much of the New York Metro area, with more steady rain likely over southern portions of New Jersey. Regardless, with warm air advection from the south increasing overnight and cloudy conditions remaining in place during the entire day on Saturday, we should see highs in the middle to upper 40’s over the entire area, with lower 50’s possible closer to the coast, making for quite the dreary day.

These temperatures will be running anywhere from 5-10 degrees above-average for this time of year, which is quite the change considering we were 10-15 degrees below-average earlier this week.

This afternoons high resolution NAM model showing the vast majority of the heavy rain staying to the south of the NYC area Fri/Sat

Unsettled conditions remain through Sunday night

As we head into the evening and overnight hours on Saturday, we should begin to see the upper-level low slowly begin to move into portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic states. As this systems pushes to our south late Saturday night and during the early morning hours of Sunday, the positioning of the upper-level system will allow for stronger areas of lift to develop from north to south, which should finally result in a batch of moderate to heavy rainfall pushing through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern states.

The complex part of this forecast really begins on Sunday afternoon when another shortwave trough will be quickly moving over southern Canada. Recent model trends have shown that this Canadian shortwave trough will have the potential to interact with the upper level low located to our south, which could help to spawn an area of low pressure off the New Jersey coast. While southerly flow and very marginal surface temperatures should keep precipitation limited to a dreary and cool rain throughout our area, we could see some colder temperatures begin to bleed in over the Northeast later Sunday afternoon. This will have some very important implications for locations well to the north and west of the New York city area as we head into the evening hours on Sunday when the surface low pressure system begins to strengthen off the New Jersey coast. With the colder air bleeding in from the north and the upper-level low to the south of Long Island providing sufficient lift for continued precipitation over PA/NY/NJ, there is the possibility that we could see rain gradually change to a wet snow/rain mix for locations over NE PA, SNY, and elevated portions of NW NJ. Again, temperature profiles are very mild and the best chance for a light mix of precipitation will come from “dynamic cooling” within heavier areas of precip to the NW of the city.

~Updated NYC Weekly Planner ~

Clear and cooler start to the work week

As the shortwave trough moving through Canada gradually digs into the Northeast overnight on Sunday and into Monday morning, we should see the mild and dreary conditions gradually fade from northwest to southeast. A much cooler mid-level airmass will be moving into the area during the afternoon hours on Monday, which should also eliminate most of the residual clouds from this weekends storm system in addition to bringing high temps across the area back into the middle to lower 40’s. Relatively clear and calm conditions should persists through the middle of the week as an upper-level ridge and associated area of high pressure gradually builds in over the East. Highs will likely be limited to the upper 30’s to middle 40’s Tuesday to Thursday before our next potential storm system begins to build to our west. Unfortunately, it appears that we could be looking at yet another dreary weekend next weekend over much of the East as an area of low pressure develops well to our west, dragging mild/moist conditions along the coast.

This afternoons ECMWF model showing much of the same late next week as another area of low pressure brings the potential for rain in the East

We’ll have updates on Sunday’s wintry mix potential likely during the day tomorrow, so stay tuned for updates!

Have a great weekend!

Steven Copertino

Dry and cool conditions give way to a potential heavy rain threat this weekend

December 10, 2018/0 Comments/by Steven Copertino

Good evening!

As we promised last week, much of the Northeast is now firmly entrenched in a cool and relatively quiet pattern that looks to stick around until at least the later half of this week.We kicked off the work week fitting that mold quite well as area of weak high pressure began to build in from Canada and over into portions of New England. This high pressure system ushered in a reinforcement of very dry lower to mid-level air that originated all the way from portions of the Arctic. With this very dry airmass in place, virtually the entire day has been clear across the Northeast, with the exception of a few spotty clouds further off to the north and west of the city. Given the already cold airmass in place, we saw high temperatures once again come in below the climatological average for this time of year, with highs ranging from the middle to upper 30’s during the afternoon hours. This evening will be yet another in a long-running series of cold nights as light winds and a dry/cold airmass allow for very efficient radiational cooling to take place.

Lows should be able to sink down into the middle to upper 20’s for most of Northeast NJ, Southern New York, and portions of Connecticut -with locations well to the north and west possibly slipping into the teens tonight.

Otherwise, lows in the city and along the coast should be a little warmer, with temperatures staying in the upper 20’s to lower 30’s

This evenings hi-res NAM model showing lows getting well-below freezing once again tonight for much of the area

Cold and dry conditions once again dominate the Northeast

Those waking up for the AM commute Tuesday morning should expect more of the same, with very clear but also cold weather expected. Morning temperatures in and around the New York City area will likely be in the middle to upper 20’s-with lower 30’s likely in the city.

Yet another moisture-starved shortwave trough will be moving through portions of southeast Canada during the early afternoon hours, which should help to keep very dry/stable conditions over the Northeast. This dry air will allow for much of the region to stay mostly sunny, with the usual spotty clouds expected well off to the north and west over portions of New York state and Pennsylvania. Highs tomorrow afternoon will be quite similar to today, with temperatures staying in the middle 30’s for the majority of the region. Some readings closer to the coast may approach the lower 40’s, but it will still feel quite cool. As we head into the early evening and overnight hours, the weak shortwave trough that was previously located over portions of southern Canada will quickly move through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. While this system is very dry and limited in its precipitation potential, there may be an outside chance at some flurries or light snow showers for locations to the north and west of the city. Lows tomorrow night will once again range from the middle to upper 20’s for the majority of the area, with the typical colder readings for locations to the north and west.

Wednesday should be another uneventful day across the Northeast as the area of high pressure that has been in control of our weather begins to gradually head to our east over eastern Canada. Stout northwesterly flow will be in place for the morning and afternoon hours which will allow for the same mostly sunny and cool conditions. Highs will likely be somewhat warmer during the day Wednesday when compared to Monday and Tuesday, but should still be slightly below-normal for this time of year with middle to upper 30’s likely for much of the area. The area of high pressure located over eastern Canada will begin to sink to the south and over New England on Wednesday night, which should provide another great chance at substantial radiational cooling. Expect lows dip down into the middle to upper 20’s for the area, which teens for inland locations.

As high pressure continues to sink to our east Thursday morning, another sneaky shortwave trough will be rapidly moving through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. While this shortwave trough is relatively small and dry compared to its surrounding environment, the high pressure edging off the New England coast may be able to give this system a “boost” as the mid-level flow will be coming from the Southeast US instead of Canada. This could allow enough warm air advection to creep into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic and interact with the dynamics of this shortwave to produce some light rain/snow showers (or even graupel) over the area on Thursday afternoon/evening.

Right now this solution isn’t set in stone and will have to be reviewed, but it’s something to keep an eye on in an otherwise boring pattern. With the aforementioned return flow coming from the south during the day on Thursday, we should see temps finally get into the upper 30’s and lower 40’s area-wide, though if the shortwave trough trends stronger/more moist, we could really put a cap on just how “warm” temperatures get Thursday afternoon.

This evenings NAM model showing the small, but energetic “clipper” system approaching the Northeast on Thursday followed by a larger system taking shape in the South

Heavy rain threat growing for this weekend

As we head into late Thursday/Friday, a shortwave trough from the Pacific Northwest will drop into the Rocky Mountain region and begin to phase with another piece of energy over northern Mexico. The overwhelming majority of this afternoons model guidance indicates that the result of this interaction of these two systems will yield another large area of rain breaking out over the South just in time for this weekend. As this system continues to the east during the day on Friday, it will likely “cut off” from the main jet stream, which will allow it to slowly make progress over the Southeast US while dumping very heavy rainfall. Things get interesting on Saturday as we see a similar pattern to this past weekend, with confluence in southeast Canada, and a storm to the south.

However, this time around there is no injection of cold air ahead of the storm and the confluence over Canada isn’t nearly as strong as it was this past weekend. This should allow for the upper-level low to very slowly move to the east and cause an impressive low-level jet streak to develop over the Southeast US and extend into the Northeast by Friday night. This low-level jet will be capable of transporting a very moist maritime tropical airmass from the Caribbean along the East Coast by Saturday morning, which will likely result in very heavy rainfall-and possibly even some flooding concerns. The evolution of the storm then becomes a bit more uncertain as we head into late Saturday and Sunday-with the potential for this upper-level low to linger in the East, which could prolong the rain/shower threat until Sunday.

12z ECMWF model showing a very healthy and moist low level jet extending from the Southeast US and into portions of the Northeast (AccuWx Pro)

We’ll be keeping an eye on this potential system over the next few day’s to monitor any potential hazardous weather that may accompany it, so make sure to check back soon for further updates!

Have a great night!

Steve Copertino

Mild and Calm Conditions Take Hold, Watching a Potential Coastal Storm for Friday

February 26, 2018/by Steven Copertino

Good evening!

After the cool and dreary conditions over the past couple of days, today was a slight improvement for much of the Northeast as a cold front gradually passed through the region, signaling a change to the sensible weather pattern. This front was luckily rather tame in nature, as the energy associated with the front was strung-out and not well-organized. This allowed for only moderate changes to gradually take place during the course of the day, with a rather cloudy and cool start to the day. As the day continued on, we saw high to mid level clouds lessen with time, eventually giving way to some peaks of sun. Winds shifted to the northwest behind the front, with more dry and cool air filtering into the Northeast. Modest cloud cover and a renewed airmass from Canada kept temperatures in check, with highs ranging from the lower to upper 40’s, with some locations reaching the 50 degree mark. Dry air from the north and west should continue to mix out any residual low level moisture over the next 6-12 hours, leading to mostly clear skies this evening. Additionally, an area of high pressure will be building in over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast tonight, so expect any winds to gradually diminish over time. These conditions will be quite favorable for radiational cooling to take place overnight, with temperatures likely dropping quite a bit into the lower to middle 30’s over much of the area. Some locations off to the north and west will likely drop into the middle 20’s this evening, causing any residual moisture on roadways to freeze, so please watch out for slick patches if you’re driving tonight.

This evenings latest high resolution water vapor imagery, surface observations, and surface winds, showing a more calm temporarily setting up.

Tuesday through Thursday

Tuesday will likely start off quite chilly, but clear as the area of high pressure continues to build and move eastward with time tomorrow morning. Conditions will be quite dry throughout the majority of the atmosphere, so skies will likely remain mostly sunny for the majority of the day, with a few upper level cirrus clouds passing through. The fresh Canadian airmass in place in combination with the high pressure will work in tandem to keep conditions cool, but not too cool over the entire Northeast. Highs tomorrow afternoon should remain in the middle to upper 40’s, with some inland locations likely hitting the 50 degree mark again. All in all, tomorrow should be a rather nice day, but will likely still require a light jacket to stay comfortable. Tomorrow night looks to be calm and cool as well, but not quite as cool as tonight. Lows will likely dip down into the middle to upper 30’s for the majority of the Northeast, with some locations possibly just getting below freezing.

Wednesday looks to be one of the more mild days of the week as the area of high pressure that has been dominating the east begins to move off the Mid Atlantic coast. This should create more southerly flow in the mid to low levels of the atmosphere, bringing in slightly warmer highs for the afternoon hours. Moisture looks to also increase with the southerly flow as a shortwave trough digs into the desert southwest, sending some residual energy into the east. This energy out ahead of the main system should allow for some clouds and even a few isolated showers to develop in the late afternoon hours, but not significant rain is expected. Highs will likely be able to rise into the lower to middle 50’s across the vast majority of the Northeast. Cloudy conditions will likely continue throughout the overnight hours, with the threat of a couple of showers lasting into the early morning hours. Cloud cover and southerly winds should keep lows from dipping too much, with readings likely staying in the middle to upper 30’s-with some locations seeing lows in the lower 40’s.

Things begin to get a little more interesting on Thursday, as the system that was in the southwest begins to move into the Plains and interacts with another shortwave coming down from Canada. As these systems interact and attempt to phase, a primary surface low pressure system should form over the Great Lakes region, with a large area of rain expected over much of the Southeast. As this low moves closer to the Northeast, cloudiness will likely increase in addition to the threat of some showers as we head into the late afternoon hours. Later in the evening, this area of low pressure should continue to intensify, as the mid level system becomes much more organized. This process should continue into the overnight hours, as a stationary front likely sets up over the Mid Atlantic, which may become the focus for a secondary low pressure system to form. Temperatures on Thursday will likely remain mild, with highs in the lower to middle 50’s over the entire Northeast.

This evenings NAM model showing the development of a potentially impactful system for the Northeast

Potentially Impactful Coastal System Shaping up for Friday

This afternoons model guidance continues to show the potential for the primary low pressure system that travels over the Ohio Valley to redevelop just off the Mid Atlantic coast early Friday morning, but there are still a large amount of uncertainties with this forecast. Regardless, what we do know is that an area of blocking will be located over Greenland, which will act to slow down the mid level system and allow it to strengthen as it nears the coast. This should lead to the development of a strong low pressure system adjacent to the Mid Atlantic coast during the day on Friday, likely leading to a wide range of impacts. Almost all of the model guidance shows an impressive swath of winds just above the surface with this system due to a tight pressure gradient. Additionally, this system will be capable of tapping moist air from the south, so it will likely have a good amount of moisture to work with, leading to the development of widespread moderate to heavy precipitation. Lastly, winds out over the ocean will likely be directed towards the coast, which will create at least a moderate threat of coastal flooding as we enter a full-moon phase. One of the main things we do not know at this time is exactly when and how much phasing will occur with the two original disturbances over the Ohio Valley. A quicker phase would lead to a stronger coastal low tucked right along the coast, while less/delayed phasing will likely lead to a weaker and more elongated system.

There is also the question of precipitation type, which is something that seems to be highly sensitive at this time. While a stronger system would be able to create enough dynamic cooling for some snow to fall, this solution would also mean that the primary low in the Great Lakes sticks around longer, which creates more warm air for the coastal plain. At this time it does not seem like a widespread significant snowfall is likely from this system, but there could be some locally heavy snow in the higher terrains of the Northeast if conditions line up correctly. We will be keeping a very close eye on this system this week and will continue to provide updates as they become available!

This afternoons European ensemble individual members showing a wide variety of solutions for Friday’s system

Have a great night!

Steve Copertino

Tag Archive for: Mild

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Good evening!

Unsettled conditions remain through Sunday night

Good evening!

Cold and dry conditions once again dominate the Northeast

Heavy rain threat growing for this weekend