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John Homenuk

Hail, waterspouts and rainbows all made an appearance today

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A developing coastal system produced an array of weather conditions throughout the area today. Beginning in the morning, showers and thunderstorms developed as a result of daytime heating at the surface and cold air moving in aloft. The developing system aided in lift which allowed for these storms to form. The cold air aloft, meanwhile, aided in not only the storms development, but the threat for some hail. As the storms progressed through parts of New Jersey and then out to sea, some low level shear allowed for waterspouts to develop.

When colder than normal air exists in the mid levels of the atmosphere, developing thunderstorms will often produce hail as the ice in the cloud becomes much more thick than usual due to the colder temperatures. This often occurs in the transitional seasons of Spring and Autumn in our area, when cold pools move overhead and the surface can still become unstable.

Meanwhile, scattered showers and storms continued to develop throughout the area during the afternoon hours. Multiple rainbows were seen throughout the area. Currently, a convective system south of Long Island is moving northward toward the Central and Eastern parts of the Island. Stay tuned to our Twitter account for up to the minute information on these storms.

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John Homenuk

SPC Outlooks will change starting this Wednesday

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The Storm Prediction Center has used the same risk categories for a large part of most of our meteorological careers. Although they have adjusted the probabilities, percentages, and yes even the colors — the categorical risk areas have remained the same. On this coming Wednesday, that will change. The Storm Prediction Center currently uses a simple categorical risk system which highlights the potential for severe thunderstorms across the country. The risk areas of Slight, Moderate and High are triggered by percentage chance of a type of severe weather within 25 miles of any point. And while the newer outlooks also highlight the potential for general non-severe thunderstorms across the country, Wednesday will mark a dramatic change in the way these outlooks are viewed and understood.

The main change will be the addition of two risk levels, both falling on opposite sides of the “Slight” risk of severe thunderstorms. “Marginal”, a new risk category, will highlight the potential for severe thunderstorms that includes a 5-10% chance of wind and hail and a 2-5% chance of tornadoes — but does not trigger a Slight Risk. “Enhanced” falls on the other side of “Slight”; in other words the risk levels are enhanced (30-45% risk) but not organized or widespread enough to trigger a Moderate Risk.

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John Homenuk

Live Blog: Dangerous Gonzalo heads for Bermuda

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With benign Autumn weather in place throughout our area today — it actually will be a beautiful day with temperatures in the upper 60’s and lots of sun — our attention turns to Category 4 Hurricane Gonzalo, which is making a bee-line for the island of Bermuda today. Evacuations have already occurred and Hurricane Warnings remain in effect. The National Hurricane Center anticipates winds over 125 miles per hour, dangerous storm surge, dangerous surf, and widespread flooding and damage. Our live blog will update throughout the day with new information as we get it.

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John Homenuk

Gonzalo heads toward Bermuda as a dangerous Category 4

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Hurricane Gonzalo strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane this morning, and has since strengthened further. Maximum sustained winds within the storm are 145mph as of 11am, with higher gusts. Most concerningly, the system continues to strengthen and organize as it heads northward. The hurricane will eventually take on a slight northeasterly heading, as it moves along the periphery of both an Atlantic ridge to its east, and troughing to its west over the Western Atlantic Ocean.

Most unsettling, obviously, is the forecast track of the system. Models are in good agreement that the storm will make the aforementioned turn, taking the center near or just west of Bermuda during the mid to late afternoon on Friday. This puts Bermuda in a precarious situation — the worst winds will shift to the east side of the system as it makes this turn. Maximum sustained winds are forecast to remain near 130 mph at the time the storm nears Bermuda.

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