Posts

John Homenuk

Prolonged onshore winds, tidal flooding on area shores

/by

While the main story of the past several days has obviously been Hurricane Joaquin, the synoptic pattern results in several weather hazards regardless of the storms path. As mentioned a few days ago, the path of Joaquin was a concern, but hazardous weather was likely to occur whether the storm tracked toward our area or not.

As a large high pressure system builds from our north toward Southeast Canada and New England, the lowering pressures to our south and east will aid in a continually tightening pressure gradient. At the surface, east/northeasterly winds will continue to surge toward the area coasts — specifically the New Jersey coast — resulting in increased wave heights. With rising tides and seas, coastal flooding is likely to occur through the weekend.

Read more

Doug Simonian

Joaquin strengthens, models shift dramatically seaward with track

/by

As it moved through the very warm ocean waters near the Bahamas on Thursday, Hurricane Joaquin strengthened further, reaching Category 4 status on Thursday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds reached 130 miles per hour. The National Hurricane Center suggests additional strengthening is possible, with maximum sustained winds approaching 140 miles per hour.

Computer models have continued their immense struggles with the track and intensity of Joaquin. A storm which was modeled by only a select few to become a major hurricane just days ago, has strengthened far beyond additional expectations. One of the major reasons for this is a farther south track — into warmer waters — which also was not anticipated by modeling until 36-48 hours ago when the ECMWF was the first to suggest a southward jog.

Read more