Posts

Miguel Pierre

Premium: Inland freeze tonight, incoming storm Thursday

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High pressure from Canada will allow cold air to surge into the area over the next few days, an airmass will be characterized as unusually cold even for late October. After mostly sunny skies this morning, some atmospheric instability with daytime heating and moisture aloft will lead to more clouds mixing in with sunshine this afternoon. High temperatures throughout the NYC Metro Area and the Northern Mid Atlantic will reach into the middle 50’s, with continually breezy conditions thanks to a tight pressure gradient with a low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes.

Skies will clear during the evening hours tonight, and winds will become lighter overnight as instability diminishes with the loss of daytime heating, all as very cold air seeps into the area from the northwest. This will support very cold temperatures overnight and by daybreak on Wednesday, temperatures will have dropped into the middle and upper 30s over NYC and other urban and coastal areas. Many of the suburbs will drop into the lower to middle 30s, with some middle to upper 20s possible over parts of over the interior and higher elevations. This could lead to a freeze with some patchy frost in those areas that have not experienced frost or freeze yet this cold season. Therefore, the National Weather Service has issued Freeze Warnings for many of the inland suburbs tonight and even Frost Advisories for urban areas around Philadelphia.

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John Homenuk

Seasons coldest air to infiltrate the Northeast this week

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The coldest air of Autumn 2016 to date will surge into the Northeast United States this week, as a deepening trough passes through the Great Lakes and Southeast Canada. After an initial surge of cold air earlier this weekend, secondary surges on the heels of multiple disturbances will arrive this week, and by midweek overnight low temperatures could reach 15 to 20 degrees below normal in some locations.

The airmass will settle in from Tuesday through Thursday before the approach of another storm system. Overnight lows on both nights will be very cold in the Northeast, especially in the interior. For agricultural interests, Freeze Watches have been issued as early as Tuesday Night– as a hard freeze may occur in some locations that have not experienced it yet this year.

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John Homenuk

The stratosphere, blocking, and a hemispheric pattern change

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What exactly could a ridge in the Kara Sea, the remnants of Hurricane Nicole, and a circulation in the stratosphere all have in common? They’ll all have significant impacts on a changing weather pattern in the Northern Hemisphere over the next two weeks. Meteorology is a fickle, uncertain, and highly detailed process in almost every regard. But every once and a while, the fluid process that runs through our planets entire atmosphere can give us a show — where multiple processes come together, and they can be easily visualized and understood.

What’s occurring over the next 7 days is, by and large, a hemispheric pattern change. The progressive pattern across the United States, which has been dominated by a Pacific Jet and relatively uneventful disturbances, will undoubtedly shift. Changing wavelengths are likely to make the pattern changes effects even more dramatic. But the most interesting aspect is where, when and why these changes are occurring.

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Miguel Pierre

Premium weekly outlook: Very warm start, cooler air to follow

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The anomalous warmth we spoke about last week? It’s finally here! Sunshine will mix with clouds occasionally this afternoon, but by and large, high pressure will remain in control of the weather throughout the Northeast United States. Forecast model guidance suggests that 850mb temperatures of 12-14+ C will surge northward toward the Mid Atlantic states, with southwest winds drawing in warmer air at the surface. Temperatures will rise in the upper 70’s to near 80 this afternoon, with the possibility of some clouds later this afternoon and evening as a weak disturbance passes by. Otherwise, clearing is expected later tonight underneath high pressure and light winds. The interior valleys will drop into the 50’s, but this will be much warmer than the past several nights. Radiational cooling and warm air advecting in the mid levels could cause moisture to be trapped in the low levels — leading to low clouds and patchy fog in spots through Tuesday morning.

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