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Ending the developing misconceptions regarding the Polar Vortex

February 25, 2014/1 Comment/by John Homenuk

It has been a media frenzy. Since January, when a piece of the Polar Vortex made its dramatic trip through the Central and Eastern United States, the misconceptions regarding its origins and actual definition have continued. Whether made in a joking manner or not, some of the ideas regarding the Polar Vortex’s actual characteristics have created a bit of an issue for meteorologists. When using it to describe the pattern, we now have to keep in mind the potential media impacts. To be frank: That is not the way it should be.

The Polar Vortex, in our hemisphere, is a persistent cyclone which is located near the North Pole. It features a counter-clockwise rotating pool of cold, dense air — some of the coldest on the globe, in fact. The vortex moves around to a certain extent, but generally remains in the vicinity of the poles. What separates and moves southward (sometimes towards our area) in anomalous patterns, are pieces of the Polar Vortex which feature characteristics of the vortex itself and similar air masses.

A significant piece of the Polar Vortex is forecast to drop into Southeast Canada later this week. Here, the GFS model forecasts its position at 500mb at 84 hours.

Deep winter pattern begins this weekend

January 22, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

Some will argue that the pattern over the last several weeks had already been established as a “wintry” one, and that may technically be true. But in terms of snow cover, cold and duration the forthcoming pattern over the next few weeks will trump what we have experienced fairly easily. After Tuesday’s snowfall event — the biggest of the season for much of the I-95 corridor in our area — left a significant snowpack, polar air will rotate in and out of the area for the good part of the next two weeks. And while the main polar vortex may be just to our north over Eastern Canada, multiple disturbances rotating around it will bring plentiful chances for snowfall.

The first of these chances will likely come on Saturday, as an arctic frontal boundary swings through the Northeast United States. While no significant snowfall is expected, widespread snow squalls are likely — and strong winds will almost make the arctic frontal passage seem dramatic. The snow squalls, however insignificant they may seem after Tuesdays storm, could cause wildly reduced visibility at times and quick accumulating snow. Another chance for snow will come Sunday Night into Monday as a low pressure system tracks through the Northeast United States on the southern periphery of the aforementioned Polar Vortex.

Euro model showing sustained cold air in much of the Northern United States at Day 7.

Slow thaw will lead to warm weekend

January 8, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

There is much still to be said and analyzed about the actual impacts of the polar vortex’s pass through our area early this week, but for now – the main story will become its exit and the ensuing warm up. High temperatures on Wednesday have already rebounded several degrees, and less aggressive wind gusts have allowed wind chills to warm up as well. Don’t get us wrong — the airmass remains downright frigid — but the record breaking cold is moving out of the picture. The polar vortex is already retreating well to our north and will continue to do so through Thursday and Friday.

Temperatures in the mid levels of the atmosphere will respond, and warm, as the week comes to a close. Forecast models are in good agreement that surface temperatures will, as well. Highs should slowly warm into the 30’s by the end of the week. The pattern, then, will begin to change. The first sign will be a weak storm system which will slingshot towards our area from the Mississippi Valley on Friday, and may provide a period of light snow. Minimal accumulations are expected. But by this weekend, a stronger storm system will be organizing over the Central United States and the southerly flow ahead of it will begin pumping warmer air into our area.

GIF image animation showing rising temperatures at the 850mb level on Wednesday.

Polar air brings first record low to NYC since 1996

January 7, 2014/0 Comments/by John Homenuk

New York City had not broken a record “low” temperature since March 9, 1996. That’s almost eighteen years ago, which is hard to fathom especially when considering the amount of high temperature records which have fallen in the time since then. Yet the daily record low temperature for January 7, which was previously 5 degrees, fell on Tuesday when Central Park’s temperature dropped to 4 degrees — breaking the near eighteen year streak. The previous low of 5 degrees was set 118 years ago, during very early observations at Central Park.

More impressive, without a doubt, were the widespread single digit temperatures and strong winds which combined to yield wind chill values from -10 to -25. The arctic front which passed through the area early on Monday brought gusty west winds and 850mb temperatures of -25 to -30 C, by far the coldest air of the season to date. The airmass wasn’t unprecedented, however, as these type of polar intrusions have certainly occurred before. The piece of the polar vortex which surged through our area tucked to the south of a powerhouse low pressure system bombing out over Eastern Canada, which helped strengthen the pressure gradient and surface winds.

850mb temperatures dropped to near -30 C throughout the area on Tuesday morning as a piece of the polar vortex shifted overhead.

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