(Premium) Intensity of weekend cold still uncertain
After many of us geared up for Spring with warm weather in both the early and middle part of March, the atmosphere reminded us that no transition is as smooth as it may seem. Colder, blustery air has returned to the area, and although a mild stretch is expected during the middle of this coming week, very cold air will again surge into the area by this weekend. As we spoke about several days ago, forecast models have done an excellent job of signaling the overall pattern teleconnections and evolution, with a surge of cold air possible during the first week of April.
Over the past few days, however, the intensity and duration of this cold air has come into question. Forecast models have trended slightly weaker overall with the lobe of the Polar Vortex which will break off and head southward into Southeast Canada and Northern New England. Accordingly, the forecast temperatures in our area have moderated a bit. While the overall evoltion of the pattern still suggests anomalously cold air gets to our region, a more south-to-north gradient appears likely, with the coldest temperatures likely north of New York City and more slight to moderate departures from normal to the south.