Posts

John Homenuk

(Premium) Intensity of weekend cold still uncertain

/by

After many of us geared up for Spring with warm weather in both the early and middle part of March, the atmosphere reminded us that no transition is as smooth as it may seem. Colder, blustery air has returned to the area, and although a mild stretch is expected during the middle of this coming week, very cold air will again surge into the area by this weekend. As we spoke about several days ago, forecast models have done an excellent job of signaling the overall pattern teleconnections and evolution, with a surge of cold air possible during the first week of April.

Over the past few days, however, the intensity and duration of this cold air has come into question. Forecast models have trended slightly weaker overall with the lobe of the Polar Vortex which will break off and head southward into Southeast Canada and Northern New England. Accordingly, the forecast temperatures in our area have moderated a bit. While the overall evoltion of the pattern still suggests anomalously cold air gets to our region, a more south-to-north gradient appears likely, with the coldest temperatures likely north of New York City and more slight to moderate departures from normal to the south.

Read more

John Homenuk

(Premium) Winter storm threat next week

/by

Forecast models continue to show a classic pattern progression across the Northern Hemisphere over the next several days, with a continuation of a wave progression that favors the development of a Western USA ridge and Eastern USA trough by the beginning of next week. The redevelopment of this large ridge in the Western USA, extending northward into British Columbia, is expected to be the focal point for the potential development of a storm system in the Eastern USA between February 24th and 28th.

Read more

John Homenuk

(Premium) Weekly outlook and hazards information

/by

A powerful coastal storm will shift east/northeast this afternoon, toward the Northwestern Atlantic Ocean, with lingering impacts expected in our area. This will be especially true for coastal sections of Eastern Long Island, where bands of snow may linger until the evening hours of Monday as the coastal low pulls away. Elsewhere, relatively benign weather will take over with gusty winds in the wake of the storm system — but no further accumulating snow.

Despite the departing storm, there are several other weather events to speak about during the upcoming work week. They begin with a weak coastal storm from Tuesday into Wednesday, and end with bitter cold and a possible coastal storm threat this weekend.

Read more

John Homenuk

Premium: Midweek storm system hazards analysis

/by

A significant storm system will develop this week, moving from the Southwestern United States into the Central Plains states by midweek. In the Northern Plains, blizzard conditions are expected to develop, with significant snowfall and high winds. Farther south and east, across the Arklatex, Mississippi River Valley, and northward to parts of the Ohio Valley, severe weather is anticipated as the storm system progresses northeastward.

Read more