Posts

John Homenuk

(Premium) Heavy rain, gusty winds possible this weekend

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Forecast models have come into better agreement on the eventual evolution of a low pressure system, which will track from the Mississippi Valley into the Northeastern United States this weekend. Setting the stage for the surface low pressure development will be a mid level atmospheric disturbance, which will eject from the Southwestern United States into the Central United States during the latter half of this current work week. In our area, mid level heights will rise (and temperatures will moderate) ahead of its approach.

Eventually, by Saturday, moisture is expected to stream toward our area as a result of increased southerly winds and a developing low level jet. Initial concerns develop as forecast models show a stout low level cold air signal at the surface, but warming air aloft. This may cause the development of some light frozen precipitation initially in the suburbs or interior. The main hazardous weather threat will come later on Sunday, however, once a significant low pressure system develops into the Great Lakes. A strong low level jet and forcing is likely to bring the potential for heavy rain, as well as gusty winds.

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John Homenuk

Long Range: First wintry threat possible for interior next week

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Record breaking warmth occurred throughout the area today, with high temperatures in the lower 70’s shattering previous high temperature records by nearly 10 degrees. In fact, New York City reached their record high temperature at 12:01am, breaking the previous record for Christmas Eve set back in 1990. This is no small feat — temperatures averaged almost 30 degrees above normal throughout the day in our forecast area.

In the midst of an incredibly warm, snowless pattern, forecast models suggest the potential for a trend-breaker during the middle of next week. Within a fast, warm mid level atmospheric flow, models are indicating the potential for a slower moving, closed low in the mid levels of the atmosphere. As this low shifts eastward through the Mississippi Valley and eventually de-amplifies toward the Northeast US, the potential exists for significant amounts of moisture to be drawn northward toward the Northeast US. Waiting to our north, precariously timed — as models suggest — will be a strong and cold Canadian high pressure system.

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Miguel Pierre

Increasing signals for a January pattern change

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Meteorological winter began about three weeks ago. Over the next 10 days, it appears the pattern will be un-supportive of winter weather — and may further support record breaking warmth. But some changes maybe underway for the New Year. Our long range outlook will discuss the meteorological pattern for the upcoming 30 to 45 days. With an in depth look into meteorological patterns and the developing global circulations, we’ll explain the processes occurring that will drive our weather pattern for late this month and January.

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Miguel Pierre

Here’s Why the Warmth This December Has Been Historic

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With the release of our Winter Forecast came the news that December was likely to average above normal in terms of temperature. Historically, almost all Strong El Nino events featured warmer than normal December’s in the Eastern US. The warmth this December, however, has been far more exceptional than anticipated. Temperatures have been well above average for almost all of the month. Multiple record highs have been broken in New Jersey and New York’s climate reporting stations. And, even still, a more anomalous warm surge is expected during the period of time near Christmas through New Years.

Currently, temperatures are running around 10 degrees above average. At this rate, extrapolating forward, December could average more than 5 degrees above normal. The meteorological reasoning behind this exceptional event features a juxtaposition of some very anomalous features:

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