Posts

John Homenuk

PM Premium Update: Unsettled weather lies ahead

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It so often works this way, but it never gets old: Torrential rain and heavy thunderstorms one day give way to beautiful blue skies and drier air the next. Today was the latter in the sequence of days, but there is a flaw in the design of appreciating such a thing; the repetitiveness that lies ahead signals an unsettled pattern will continue. Yes, stormy days again appear on the horizon in the not-so-distant future, and the atmospheric pattern doesn’t look to let up.

Forecast models are in rather good agreement regarding the overall evolution of the pattern, suggestive that multiple disturbances will swing through the Mississippi Valley and Northeast States over the next several days. And while that my not necessarily mean a washout for the area, it will mean continued opportunities at precipitation and a lack of steady warmth. This comes as bad news for those who have been longing for summer’s heat to arrive.

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John Homenuk

Southeast ridge will flex its muscles late month

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All things considered, after much conversation and discussion, meteorological winter came in cold and active during the month of December. Multiple shots of arctic air and several winter weather events, particularly in the interior, have given us a December much different than the past few years, when warm air dominated the Eastern United States’ weather pattern. That very same cold and active pattern looks likely to take a hiatus over the next few weeks.

The hemispheric pattern is undergoing changes once again — this time, pulling back the reigns on an active, amplified pattern which saw polar air drop into New England last week. This time, the stratospheric polar vortex will tighten and strengthen near the North Pole, pulling back much of the arctic air and reforming the vortex near its usual whereabouts. For much of the Northeast US, this means that arctic air will gradually become less available over the next two weeks.

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John Homenuk

Arctic air arrives, multiple wintry chances late week

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Lets face it, the term “Polar Vortex” has become overused and oversaturated over the past few years. This time, however, it is certainly applicable: A piece of the polar vortex will be swinging southwards this week through New England, bringing with it extremely cold temperatures and an arctic airmass which is decidedly unusual for this time of year.

We spoke a few weeks ago about how the intrusion of this type of air was likely, due to the presence of a large ridge building from Alaska to the North Pole. The time has finally come, and the airmass over the Northeast US by the end of this week will feature temperatures 20 to 30 degrees below normal averages for this time of year.

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John Homenuk

Wintry weather likely in the Northeast Sunday into Monday

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A much discussed storm system will finally make its trek east through the United States this weekend, arriving in the Ohio Valley and Northeast United States from Sunday into Monday. An initial disturbance pushes eastwards on Sunday, shearing out and weakening but still providing the impetus for some preliminary wintry weather. The more significant disturbance waits until Sunday Night and Monday to impact the Northeast US, bringing with it a significant amount of moisture and lift for precipitation. Snow is expected to shift northeastwards from the Ohio Valley gradually as Sunday evening goes on.

That’s where the complications begin: A surge of warm air associated with the system will be battling a departing high pressure, which will be on borrowed time as it moves away into the Atlantic Ocean. This spells the likelihood of mixed precipitation and transitioning precipitation types after a start as snow, especially near the coast where wintry precipitation amounts will be extremely limited. But inland, where cold air is expected to be more stout, a few inches of snow are possible before the changeover.

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